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大震过程中地壳形变的混沌和多重分形特征及其预报意义

CHAOTIC AND MULTI FRACTAL CHARACTERISTIC OF THE SEISMOGENIC PROCESS FOR CRUSTAL DEFORMATION AND ITS APPLICATIONW EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

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【作者】 李强

【Author】 Li Qiang(Seismological Bureau of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210014 )

【机构】 江苏省地震局!南京210014

【摘要】 以地壳形变中地倾斜观测为例,用常熟观测台石英摆地倾斜仪记录到的1995年7月1日至1997年6月30日SN测向的观测数据作为研究的原始资料,采用时间延迟相空间重构法计算并研究了1996年11月9日南黄海Ms6.1级地震前后地倾斜系统混沌吸引子的关联维数D2、二阶熵K2和最大Lyanunov指数λ1,并用推广GP法和数盒子法研究了地震前后系统多重分形的广义维数谱Dq和奇异性谱f(α).研究结果表明:地倾斜系统为混沌系统,系统的自由度在2~14之间;地震过程中系统有降维减熵现象;震前广义维数谱Dq左半边曲线变陡,奇异性谱f(α)曲线中α的取值范围增大,曲线右端下降.研究结果对认识大震过程中地壳形变的非线性动力学特征和利用这些特征进行地震预报具有重要的参考价值.

【Abstract】 With the observational ground tilt data in the NE direction which is recorded from 1 July 1995 to 30 June 1997 by the horizontal pendulum tiltmeter at Changsu Station, the correlation dimension D2 and ordepe-2 Renyi entropy K2 as well as the largest Lyapunov exponent λ1 of the strange attractors of the ground tilt system before and after South Yellow Sea earthquake (Ms 6.1) in 9 November 1996 are calculated and studied with the time-delay phase space reconstruction algorithm, besides, the generalized fractal dimension spectrum Dq and singularity spectrum f(α) before and after the earthquake are also calculated and studied with the generalized Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm and the box-counting algorithm. It is indicated that the ground hit system is a chaotic system, the freedom degree of which is within the range of 2~14, and the dimension and entropy of the system declines before the earthquake. It is also indicaTed that the left half of the generalized fractal dimension spectrum Dq curve appears steep, the a value variation range of the singularity spectrum f(α) curve increases, and the right end of the curve declines before the earthquake. The conclusion on this research can be of great reference value to recognizing the nonlinear dynamic features of the crustal deformation and its application in earthquake prediction.

  • 【文献出处】 地球物理学进展 ,PROGRESS IN GEOPHYSICS , 编辑部邮箱 ,1999年01期
  • 【分类号】P315.75
  • 【被引频次】6
  • 【下载频次】96
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