【摘要】 生态敏感性评估可以为管控生态风险与保障区域生态安全提供决策依据。在生态敏感性定义的基础之上运用经济学理论构建生态敏感性评估的理论模型,以土地利用转移几率比替代矩阵作为敏感性评价因子,并且利用生态系统服务价值的实际值与预测值之比的绝对值作为区域生态敏感性指数。结果表明:①设计的生态敏感性评估方法可以弥补现有生态敏感性评估方法的不足,不仅可以观测到区域敏感性因子还能有效地进行敏感性分区,并且在不同尺度下得到了可靠的结果。②在各县(区)最主要敏感性因子的列示中,陕西省1990—2000年以生态破坏因子为主导;而2000年以后,退耕还林工程导致耕地→林地、耕地→草地成为陕北地区最重要的敏感因子,陕南秦巴山区与关中地区由于众多水利工程建设导致生态系统服务价值对草地→水域因子的响应程度比较高。③陕西省总体敏感性由南向北呈现"低敏感-高敏感"间隔有序的基本格局,并且呈现空间上集聚、时间上稳定的状态;高敏感区主要分布沿秦岭、"子午岭-黄陵山"分布,低敏感区主要分布在关中平原以及榆林中部地区。更多还原

【Abstract】 As human activities continue to occupy ecological space in breadth and depth,ecosystems are facing potential risks from structural damage to functional disorder on the whole. Moreover, the continuous decline of sustainable supply capacity of ecosystem services has a profound impact on human well-being and ecological security. Ecological sensitivity assessment(ESA) can provide decision-making basis for controlling ecological risk and ensuring regional ecological security. However, the current methods of ESA have suffered a lot of criticisms, especially in the framework of ES-LUCC. Hence, we develop the theoretical framework and design the model of ESA to overcome the defects of existing methods based on the definition of ecological sensitivity and economic theory. In this paper, the substitution matrix of odds ratio about land use transition is considered as the sensitive factors instead of that of land area.And then ecological sensitivity index is designed by the absolute value of actual value divided by predicted value of ESV. The results show that the method of ecological sensitivity assessment designed in this paper can not only observe the regional sensitivity factors, but also identify sensitive zones effectively and it still has strong applicability and robustness in small scale. In the list of the most sensitive factors, the negatively ecological factors dominate the ecosystem services such as grassland→cultivated land due to the internal economic driving and the lack of external ecological regulation from 1990 to 2000 in Shaanxi province. However, the Grain for Green Project contributes positively ecological factors to the most sensitive factor such as cultivated land→forestland and cultivated land→grassland in the northern part of the province.Due to the implementation of many water conservancy projects in southern Qinling-Daba Mountains and Guanzhong area, the sensitivity factor coefficient of grassland→water factor is relatively high. The overall sensitivity of the study area presents the basic pattern of orderly interval "Low-High" from south to north, and shows a state of spatial agglomeration and temporal stability. The high-sensitivity areas are mainly distributed along the Qinling Mountains and Ziwuling-Huangling Mountains, and the low-sensitivity areas are mainly in the Guanzhong Plain and the central zone of Yulin city. It is urgent to adjust unreasonable land use distribution and construct an ecological screen according to ecological sensitivity for realizing harmonious coexistence between human and nature.更多还原