【摘要】 本文构建了一个用于分析自然灾害对区域农畜产品市场价格影响的自然灾害影响农业生产的分析模型,并基于多种统计与调查资料模拟了汶川特大地震对全国农畜产品市场价格的影响。模拟表明,汶川地震对全国水稻、小麦、玉米和猪肉主要农畜产品的市场价格的变化影响甚微,没有影响全国农业生产的基准面。不过,汶川地震毋容置疑地对当地农业生产造成了一定程度的影响,尤其是对重灾区种植业和养殖业造成了显著的影响。本文为准确评价自然灾害对农畜产品市场的影响、合理评估灾害损失及其中长期趋势提供了一种可资借鉴的方法,为制定并实施灾后农畜产品生产的规划提供了决策参考信息,为评估区域自然灾害对农畜产品市场价格的影响提供了借鉴。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the partial equilibrium theory,this paper built an agricultural equilibrium model which was used to simulate the impacts on the market price of agricultural products due to the occurrence of natural disasters.This model was used in the case study area,the quake-hit region Wenchuan,to simulate and evaluate the influences on market price fluctuation of agricultural products nationwide on the basis of data from Sichuan provincial statistical yearbook,survey data in the quake-hit region and data supplied by relevant agencies for the local government and departments concerned.The simulation results indicate the Wenchuan Earthquake has had only marginal impacts on the fluctuations of market price of agricultural products such as rice,wheat,corn and pork and have had no strong disturbance on the stability of the prices of agricultural products at national level.Wenchuan Earthquake,however,undoubtedly,resulted in some effects on the local agricultural production.It brought significantly negative impacts on both planting industry and breeding industry in the severe disaster areas.The research results of this paper provides information of decision-making for the disaster areas in scientifically evaluating earthquake influences on the changes of market prices of agricultural products,laying down planning of earthquake preparedness and disaster reduction and the recovery of agricultural production for the quake-hit region.更多还原