【摘要】 对复杂电力系统灾变以及电网发生连锁性大停电事故机理的研究表明,自组织临界性是电网停电事故的特征。极值理论主要以极值为研究对象,传统上被用来预测海啸、地震、洪水等自然灾害。文中将极值理论应用于电网停电事故的自组织临界性的研究中,在电网停电事故的标度—频度幂律分布特征下,证明了停电事故发生规模的极值分布为极限收敛于Ⅰ型渐近分布。利用计算公式以东北及西北电网的停电事故为例,进行了初步的计算分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 Recent studies on the power systems collapse prevention and the mechanism of cascading failures have shown that the self-organized criticality (SOC) is the character of power system blackouts. The theory of extreme value mainly studies extreme value, which traditionally can be used as a tool forecasting tsunami, earthquake and flood. By applying the theory of extreme value in the SOC of power system blackouts, the paper proves that the limit of the size extreme value distribution of the blackouts based on the scale-frequency power-law distribution is convergent to the Ⅰformula. As an example, the calculation of extremes analysis of the blackouts data of the Northeast and Northwest China power grid is presented.更多还原