【摘要】 从地震灾害的本质与灾害风险管理角度,结合国际灾害风险管理经验,评述汶川地震灾难中暴露出来的中国地震灾难风险管理的一些问题,指出过度强调或依赖地震预报,长于救灾而弱于防灾与减灾,使得中国难以降低地震灾难的严重程度。通过分析自然灾害风险管理的内涵、国际主流风险管理框架(IRGC、ERM、TDRM、GTZ),指出综合灾难风险管理是全面减灾最为有效、积极的手段与途径,中国在自然灾难管理中迫切需要实施综合风险管理。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper aims to explore the importance of natural disaster risk management to significantly reduce the impacts of disasters in China. Lessons learnt from the Wenchuan earthquake disaster, a catastrophic disaster that rarely occurred in China’s history, have shown that earthquake forecasting or prediction is a misconception in earthquake disaster reduction because it can not greatly help reduce the impacts of disasters. Therefore, it is high time for our country to shift its conception of disaster management from hazard forecasting or prediction to risk management, an effective and efficient way to reduce the impacts of disasters, in terms of the international progresses in disaster management theory and practices. The essential ways and measures to mitigate the seriousness of earthquake disasters in China include improvement of risk analysis and assessment of earthquake disasters, reduction of exposure and vulnerability in high risk areas through structural and non-structural measures, strict implementation of the building code for seismic design to insure the quality of buildings, especially for the critical facilities, establishment of modern systems of earthquake risk transfer, and enhancement of the national and local capacities to cope with disasters.更多还原