【摘要】 随着产业结构调整的深入,港口发展逐渐从高速增长向高质量发展转变。为厘清产业结构调整与港口发展的内在关系,该文基于1996-2015年河北省三大产业增加值及唐山港港口吞吐量年度数据,采用灰色关联度与向量自回归模型进行实证分析,结果表明:第一产业对港口影响较小且保持平稳,第二产业对港口吞吐量的直接影响较大,第三产业对港口吞吐量的增加有一定影响,但影响程度低于第二产业;产业结构调整导致港口吞吐量增速渐缓。通过VAR模型分析得出,未来10年第二、三产业对港口发展的贡献度分别稳定在40%与50%左右。针对依赖港口吞吐量获得竞争优势已不可持续的现状,提出适应产业结构调整的港口发展建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the advancement of industrial restructuring,port development is turning gradually from rapid growth to quality improvement.We have conducted empirical analysis using grey relevance and vector auto-regression models based on both added values of the three major industries and the annual throughput data of the Port of Tangshan during the period of 1996-2015 in order to clarify the internal relationship between industrial restructuring and port development.The result shows that the primary industry has the smallest and steady impacts on the port.The secondary industry generates greater direct influence on the port throughput.The tertiary industry′s impact is lower than that of the secondary industry in increasing the port throughput.Industrial restructuring leads to the slow growth of port throughput.An analysis was also made through a VAR model,showing that the contributions of the secondary and tertiary industries to port development for the next ten years remain stable at about 40% and 50%,respectively.This paper also gives suggestions for port development which are adaptable to industry restructuring concerning the reason of unsustainable competitive advantages by way of port throughputs.更多还原