【摘要】 出游力对旅游地可持续发展及客源市场开发具有重要作用。通过出游力理论内涵分析,基于"推-阻-拉"理论修正了出游力测评模型,对厦门客源市场出游力进行测评,并运用季节性强度指数、空间自相关分析了出游力的时空格局。研究发现:1)厦门客源市场出游力主要分布于夏春两季,旺季短、平(淡)季长;各月出游力呈现"倒海鸥"形变化规律。2)出游力逐年增长,且高峰值集中于第三季度,呈现出厦门周边地区出游力强且季节性差异大,西北和东北出游力弱且季节性差异小的特点。3)出游力呈现空间集聚格局,但集聚程度呈下降态势。冷热点呈现"东南-西北"方位递减的空间分布趋势,符合距离衰减规律,热点区域分布于省内及周边地区。4)厦门客源市场可分为强出游力区、较强出游力区、一般出游力区和弱出游力区4个等级。5)经济发展水平、空间邻近效应、气候舒适度、旅游资源差异、交通成本和休假制度是厦门客源市场出游力的主要影响因素。更多还原

【Abstract】 Emissiveness is an important way to assess the latent emissiveness of domestic tourist market,which contributes to the sustainable development of tourism destination and the development of tourist market.Based on the theoretical analysis of emissiveness,the emissiveness evaluation model is revised through push-resistance-pull theory.Further,the emissiveness of Xiamen tourist market is evaluated.And seasonal intensity index and spatial autocorrelation are adopted to analyze the spatial-temporal pattern of emissiveness.It is found as follows.First,the emissiveness of Xiamen tourist market is mainly distributed in the summer and spring.Specifically,peak-season is short,and the off-season and shoulder season are long.Moreover,the monthly emissiveness shows the change law of "inverted seagull" shape.Second,the emissiveness increases year by year with peak values of emissiveness concentrated in the third quarter.There is such a feature that the emissiveness in surrounding areas of Xiamen is relatively high with a distinct seasonal differences,while the emissiveness of Northwest and Northeast China is rather low with a minor seasonal differences.Third,there is a spatial agglomeration pattern shown in terms of emissiveness,but the agglomeration development trend is declining.Further,the cold-hot spots present a spatial distribution trend of decreasing along "southeast-northwest" orientation,which is consistent with distance decay.Fourth,the Xiamen tourist market can be divided into 4 levels,including strong emissiveness areas,relatively strong emissiveness areas,general emissiveness areas and weak emissiveness areas.Finally,economic development level,spatial proximity effect,comfort index of climate,tourism resource difference,transportation cost and vacation system are the main influencing factors of Xiamen tourist market.更多还原