【摘要】 城市自然灾害风险分析与评估关系到城市灾害预警、预案、灾害风险管理、城市防灾规划等诸多方面,是城市安全和人类安身的基础。该文从城市防灾规划的需要出发,首先,定义了基于防灾规划的城市自然灾害风险分析与评估的内涵,针对城市防灾规划的特点和自然灾害风险分析的评价目标,构建基于防灾规划的城市自然灾害评估模型与评估流程。其次,将风险分析过程分为致灾因子分析、暴露性分析、脆弱性分析3部分,并介绍了常用的评估方法。最后提出:服务于防灾规划的城市自然灾害风险研究,应搭建时空桥梁,强化自然灾害风险评估成果在城市防灾规划中的应用;着重将多灾种风险评估服务于综合规划,单灾种风险评估服务于专项规划;通过完善评估模型,合理运用GIS、RS等技术深化自然灾害风险分析评估在城市防灾规划中的应用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Urban natural disaster risk analysis and assessment has a closely relationship with the urban disaster early-warning,urban disaster pre-arranged plan,urban disaster risk arrangement and urban disaster prevention plan,which means urban natural disaster risk analysis and assessment is the base of habitat for human and city security.Firstly,after defining urban natural disaster risk analysis and assessment based on urban disaster prevention plan,this paper structures the process of urban natural disaster risk analysis model and assessment process,aiming to meet characters of urban disaster prevention and criteria of natural disaster risk analysis.Then,the risk analysis procedures are classified into hazard analysis,exposure analysis and frangibility analysis,and provides introductions about ordinary methodology of assessment.In the end,based on all the analysis above,the vision and direction of future research is put forward.The proposal for the urban natural disaster risk analysis and assessment serving for urban disaster prevention plan is as followed:Firstly,temporal and spatial tools should be used to combine disaster risk assessment and urban disaster prevention plan;Secondly,multi-disaster risk assessment is used for comprehensive disaster prevention plan while single disaster risk assessment is to deal with specialized disaster prevention plan;Thirdly,on one hand,assessment should be improved,on the other hand,the application of GIS and RS should be paid fully attention.更多还原