【摘要】 本文简单地回顾了从热力学熵到拓扑熵的熵概念发展历史以及熵理论在地震预报中的应用，着重介绍了Ｋｏｌｍｏｇｏｒｏｖ熵的理论背景、计算方法、估计方法以及它与系统动力学行为的可预报性问题的关系。以京津唐地区为例，对时间域计算了Ｋ熵在唐山大震前后的变化情况，得出大震前系统存在Ｋ熵下降的趋势，震后又回升。以多台的空间域综合方法计算得到Ｋ熵大于零，对于１０－５～１０－６的观测精度其可报期限为４～５年。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,we reviewed the history of the concept of entropy from thermodynamics entropy to topological entropy and its application to earthquake prediction. Futher the theory backgrcund,calculation and estimation methods of the Kolmogorov entropy(metricentropy)and the relationship between the K-entropy and the predictability of the dynamic behavior of a system are reported.Taking Beijing-Tianjing area as an example,we calculated the K-entropy and the predictuble term of the time field and the space field.It is found that the K-entropy reduced before large earthquakes and recovered after earthquakes in the time field,and that the K-entropy of the seismogenic system is larger than zero in the space field.This shows that this system has chaotie behavior,meanwhile that the predictable term of the system is 4～5 years.更多还原