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福建水口水库诱发地震及其发展趋势探讨
DISCUSSION ON INDUCED EARTHUAKE IN SHUIKOU RESERVOIR AREA OF FUJIAN PROVINCE AND SEISMIC ACTIVITY TREND
【摘要】 应用概率法、综合影响参数预测法、两级模糊评判法、古登堡-里克特公式外推预测法等对水口水库诱发地震序列以及活动特征进行了研究,认为:1996年4月21日发生的ML4.1地震为水口水库诱发地震主震,今后库区发生大于3级以上诱发地震的可能性较小。
【Abstract】 The sequence and activity characteristics of Shuikou reservoir induced earthquake are analyzed with several methods,such as probabilistic evaluation,comprehensive effect parameter E evaluation,two-step comprehensive fuzzy evaluation,the maximum magnitude of historical earthquakes evaluation,etc..The results show that the Shuikou ML4.1 earthquake on April 21,1996 is a main-earthquake,and from now on,the possibility occuring ML>3 induced earthquake in Shuikou reservoir area is low.
【关键词】 水口水库;
诱发地震;
地震序列;
最大震级;
发展趋势预测;
【Key words】 Shuikou reservoir; induced earthquake; seismic sequence; maximum magnitude; prediction of development trend;
【Key words】 Shuikou reservoir; induced earthquake; seismic sequence; maximum magnitude; prediction of development trend;
【基金】 福建省地震局科研项目
- 【文献出处】 大地测量与地球动力学 ,Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics , 编辑部邮箱 ,2007年03期
- 【分类号】P315
- 【被引频次】4
- 【下载频次】89