【摘要】 提出了一种描述板块边界断层运动的力学模型，即将板块边界的地壳运动表述为板块的相对刚体运动加边界断层面上的负位错分布。应用该模型描述北美板块与太平洋板块边界处的圣安德烈斯断层带，并用该地区近３０年的大地测量数据反演了模型参数。研究结果表明，运用该模型方法可利用大地测量数据确定沿板块边界断层带的相对闭锁区，从而进行中长期地震预报。更多还原

【Abstract】 A physical model for describing the fault movement along plate boundary is proposed, i. e., the crust movement along plate boundary equals to the relative rigid plate motion plus negative dislocation distributions on the fault planes. Applying this model to the San Andreas Fault in Southern California, which is the boundary between the Pacific plate and the Northern American plate, the parameters of the physical model is determined by the inversion of the geodetic data of late 30 years in this area. The research result shows that this physical model is useful to determine the locked area along plate boundary faults and further to make the long term and middle term earthquake prediction.更多还原