【摘要】 在原有GDP锦标赛模式下,地方政府为了追求经济增长往往会忽略环境保护等次要目标,甚至形成政企合谋,默许当地企业的污染行为。2007年国务院发布了《国务院关于印发节能减排综合性工作方案的通知》,正式将环保一票否决制引入官员晋升考核标准中。这一考核制度意味着,如果地方官员无法完成上级制定的节能减排任务,即使经济发展等方面的业绩再突出,都将无法晋升。这一政策变化必然会导致地方官员在环保工作上的投入发生跳跃式增加,尤其是对环保违法行为的监管。基于2004年至2015年各地环保行政处罚案件的数据,本文采用断点回归方法(RDD)估计得出,环保一票否决制的引入使得一个城市每年的环保行政处罚数量平均增加约30起。而在政策冲击前后,企业的生产与排污行为并没有发生跳跃式变化。进一步地分析发现,各地区对这一政策的反应存在巨大的异质性。借助机器学习,本文发现,在众多变量中,官员是否受到晋升年龄限制、任期等政治因素是影响地方官员对这一政策反应最为重要的因素。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the GDP Championship in the past, local governments may pursuit of economic growth but neglect other factors such as environmental protection, and even conspire with local enterprises to acquiesce the pollution behavior. The State Council promulgated the "Notice of the State Council on Printing and Distributing the Comprehensive Work Plan for Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction" in 2007, and confirmedly introduced the "One-Vote Veto System" of environmental protection into the official assessment system. This assessment system means that if local officials are unable to complete the task of energy conservation and emission reduction formulated by their superiors, even if the performance of economic development and other aspects are outstanding, they will not be promoted. This change had led local officials to significantly increase their efforts in environmental protection, especially in the regulation of environmental violations. We collect the data of administrative punishment cases of environmental pollution from 2004 to 2015 and use the RD Design to estimate the treatment effect. Then we find that the introduction of "One-Vote Veto System" had increased the number of administrative penalties by about 30 times on average. But there is no leap in the production and emissions of enterprises around the policy shock.Further, the responses of different cities to this policy are heterogeneous. With machine learning technology, we find that among the variables, whether the officials are subject to promotion age restrictions, tenure and other political factors are the most important factors affecting local officials’ response to this policy.更多还原