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中国大陆活动地块边界带最大震级分布特征研究

Characteristics of Maximum Magnitude Distributions for Active Block Boundaries in Mainland China

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【作者】 任晴晴钱小仕赵玲玲霍振香

【Author】 REN Qing-qing,QIAN Xiao-shi,ZHAO Ling-ling,HUO Zhen-xiang(Institute of Disaster Prevention Science and Technology,Hebei Sanhe,065201,China)

【机构】 防灾科技学院

【摘要】 中国大陆活动地块边界带是强震活动的集中带,也是地震预测研究与防灾减灾的主要目标区,而最大地震震级是描述区域地震活动性的一个基本参数,被广泛应用于地震危险性分析研究中,因此有必要开展各活动地块边界带最大震级分布特征研究。本文利用广义极值(GEV)分布对各边界带作极值统计分析,对于分布参数进行估计,比较极值分布99%分位数和b值截距法最大震级、历史最大震级,并计算各震级水平下地震平均复发周期与发震次数,探讨活动地块各边界带未来强震活动的危险性。

【Abstract】 Previous studies have pointed out that the active block boundaries in Chinese mainland are the concentration belts of strong earthquakes and the main target zones of earthquake prediction research and disaster prevention.The largest earthquake magnitude is one of the basic parameters in regional seismicity descriptions.It is widely used in seismic risk analysis research.Therefore,it is necessary to carry out studies of the maximum magnitude distribution on the active block boundaries.In this paper,we carry out the extreme statistical analysis on the active block boundaries by using the generalized extreme value distribution to get the estimation of distribution parameters.We compare the quantile of a level 0.99 for extreme value distribution,the theoretic maximum magnitude from G-R relation and historical maximum magnitude.The average recurrence period and the number of earthquakes are calculated,and the seismic risk of strong earthquakes on active block boundaries in the future is discussed.

  • 【分类号】P315
  • 【被引频次】4
  • 【下载频次】81
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