【摘要】 利用中国大陆1930年以来的5级以上地震目录,以年为单位统计7级以上地震,只要某年发生了7级以上地震就视为"有震年",不区分该年发生了多少次7级以上地震,若某年没有发生7级以上地震就视为"无震年"。分析5级以上地震年频次与"有震年"或"无震年"之间的关系,利用χ2检验方法对其显著性进行检验。结果表明:①当5级以上地震年频次N>30时,其后第6年为"无震年",这个关系在2%的显著水平下通过显著性检验;②当5级以上地震年频次N≥24时,其后第6年或第9年为"无震年",这个关系分别在10%和2%的显著水平下通过显著性检验;③当N<10时,其后第6年为"有震年",这个关系在2%的显著水平下通过显著性检验。更多还原

【Abstract】 The years whether MS≥7.0 earthquakes occurred or not are investigated by using the MS≥5.0 earthquake catalog occurred in the Chinese mainland.The year when an MS≥7.0 earthquake occurred is called "earthquake year",and the year when no MS≥7.0 earthquake occurred is called "no-earthquake year".The relationships between the annual numbers of MS≥5.0 earthquakes and "earthquake year" or "no-earthquake year" are analysed,and χ2 test method has been employed to test the significance.The results obtained are as follows: ① If the annual nember of the MS≥5.0 earthqaukes is greater than 30 in some year,the sixth year later is "no-earthquake year".The test of significance for this relationship can be passed under the significance level of 2 percent;② If the annual nember of MS≥5.0 earthqaukes is greater than or equal to 24 in some year,the sixth and ninth years later are "no-earthquake year".The tests of significance for these two relationships can be passed under the significance level of 10 and 2 percent respectively;③ If the annual nember of MS≥5.0 earthqaukes is less than 10 in some year,the sixth year later is "earthquake year".The test of significance for this relationship can be passed under the significance level of 2 percent.更多还原