【摘要】 本文对四川地区1923年以来5.0级以上地震资料进行了分析研究。结果表明,研究区中强地震经历了4个较为完整的周期活动,中强地震具有16年的准周期活动特征,平静期持续5年左右,从2008年汶川8.0级地震开始,研究区将进入第5个活动周期,其可能的持续时间为2024年前后。2008年汶川8.0级地震前,5.0~5.9级、6.0~6.9级、7.0~8.0级三个档次的地震事件的平静间隔均达到统计时段的历史之最,三个档次地震的平静均被汶川8.0级地震直接打破,中强地震超长平静是汶川8.0级地震前最为显著的异常现象。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper analyzed MS≥5.0 earthquakes since 1923 in the region of Sichuan.The result shows that strong earthquakes in the region experienced four complete cycle of seismic activities,and there is a 16-year quasi-periodic characteristics for medium to strong earthquake.The quiet period lasted about 5 years.Starting from the 2008 Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake,the study area will enter into the fifth active cycle and continue to about 2024.Quiescence intervals for M5.0~5.9,M6.0~6.9,and M7.0~8.0 events reached the historical highest before the May 12,2008 Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake.Long-term quiescence of strong earthquake is the most significant anomaly before the Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake.更多还原