【摘要】 针对目前广泛使用的b值对资料要求较高的缺陷,利用贝叶斯判别准则,计算强震前中小地震数比p值的方法,计算了西北地区6级以上地震前中小地震比例的变化情况,结果表明该值与6级以上地震有明显的对应关系,地震一般发生在p值高值异常区,说明该方法对西北地区6级以上地震有一定的预测意义,同时对p值的物理意义进行了探讨。更多还原

【Abstract】 Aiming at the shortage of the b value method, which needs higher quality data, we used the maximum likelihood and Byaesian minimum criterion method to calculate the proportion number of large to small earthquakes before the eight strong earthquakes with M≥6 in Northwest China region. It is found that the proportion has a certain significance for predicting the strong earthquakes with M≥6 in Northwest China; and the paper also gives the explanation of the proportion of large to small earthquakes.更多还原