【摘要】 研究了中国大陆华北地区、西南地区和西北地区自 1 5 0 0年以来因地震造成人员死亡率的自相似指数标度律 ,并将其应用于泊松模型中 ,对未来地震人员死亡数作了长期预测。预测表明 ,在 2 0 2 0年前 ,华北地区、西南地区发生地震死亡 1 0 0 0人以上事件以及西北地区发生地震死亡 1 0 0人以上事件的概率都在 0 .8以上。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper studied the self similar power scaling laws of earthquake live loss rates, during a period from 1500 to 2000 for North China, Southwest China and Northwest China respectively. The laws have been used in long term earthquake live loss prediction. The researches show that the occurrence probabilities of earthquake live losses of 1000 persons or more in North China and Southwest China, and 100 persons or more in Northwest China would be 0.8 or more before 2020 respectively.更多还原