【摘要】 1998年1月10日张北-尚义发生了6.2级地震，这次地震前区域地震活动显示出了明显的异常特征，中期预报效果比较成功，对于这次地震没有作出短临预报，这既有地震孕育过程的复杂性和地震预报的高难度问题，也存在一定程度的预报技术思路问题。近几年来作者对在北京西北的晋、冀、内蒙古交界地区形成的以地震活动条带为代表的多项地震活动异常给予关注，现反思张北-尚义6．2级地震之前的某些前兆异常现象和预报过程，对于今后的地震预报研究具有借鉴的意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 After the M6. 4 Baotou earthquake in Inner Mongolia in May 1996, the M6. 2 South Yel-low Sea earthquake in November 1996 , the M6. 2 Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake on January 10, 1998 , another M ≥6 earthquake occurred in North China. Before this earthquake, re-gional seismicity showed obvious anomalous characteristics and the medium-term prediction was quite successful. Unfortunately, the short-term and imminent predictions were not made for this earthquake. It was not only due to the complexity of earthquake development process and the extreme difficulty in earthquake prediction, but also to a certain problem regarding the technical thinking for earthquake prediction. In recent years, the authors have paid great at-tention to the selsmic conditions in north-west Beijing -the boundary area of Shanxi, Hebei and Inner Mongolia , and have discovered many items of seismicity anomalies characterized by bands of seismicity. To rethink the precursory anomaly phenomena and the processof predic-tion before the M6. 2 Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake will be of great significance for the earth-quake prediction in the future.更多还原