【摘要】 本文探索了提高综合预报能力的一种方法,即建立自适应加权综合判别模式。应用云南及滇西地区的地震、环境因子、前兆等各方面资料,通过各种方法处理分析后,筛选出符合一定条件的预报因子,分别建立了云南及邻区M≥6.7地震的中期综合判定模式、滇西地区M≥5地震的中期和短临综合判定模式。经过近2年的预报实践检验,该方法效果显著。更多还原

【Abstract】 A method to improve the ability of the comprehensive prediction is suggested in this paper by means of establishing a self-adaptive weighted synthetic discriminant model. Through processing and analyzing various data of earthquakes, environmental factors and precursors etc, obtained from western Yunnan and Yunnan Porvince, a prediction factor according with a certain condition is selected and use it to set up the middle-term synthetic discriminant model for M>6.7 earthquakes in Yunnan and its neighboring area and the middle-and short-term synthetic discriminant model for M>5 earthquakes in western Yunnan region, respectively. Examined by two years prediction practice, it is shown that this method is quite effective.更多还原