【摘要】 基于物理过程的地表-地下水耦合模型能全面、系统地刻画流域水循环过程,并为水资源管理提供详细信息。同时,未来水资源的变化趋势受到气候变化的影响显著,在未来气候情景下水资源如何变化将影响水资源管理措施。本文以黑河中游盆地为例,基于地表水-地下水耦合模型GSFLOW,评估区域水资源对气候变化的响应,预测未来气候情景(CMIP5)下区域水资源变化趋势,为西北干旱区水资源管理提供参考。研究表明:(1)GSFLOW模型能很好地模拟黑河中游盆地复杂的水循环过程。(2)在中等排放强度(RCP4.5)下,平均每年降水上升0.6 mm,温度上升0.03℃,地下水储量减少0.38亿m3;在高排放强度(RCP8.5)下,降水上升0.8 mm,温度上升0.06℃,地下水储量减少0.34亿m3。更多还原

【Abstract】 The integrated surface-groundwater model based on physical processes can comprehensively and systematically describe the water cycle process of the basin and provide detailed information for water resources management. At the same time, the future trends of water resources are significantly affected by climate change, and the problem as to how water resources change in future climate scenarios will affect water management measures. The authors evaluated the regional water resources response to climate change, based on the surface water-groundwater coupling model GSFLOW. By predicting the regional water resources change trend under the future climate scenario(CMIP5), the results can provide reference of water resources management for the arid regions.Some conclusions have been reached:(1) The GSFLOW model can simulate the complex water cycle of the middle reaches of the Heihe River.(2) Under the medium stabilization scenario(RCP4.5), precipitation in the region increases by an average of 0.6 mm per year, with an average temperature increase of 0.03 degrees Celsius per year, surface water flow of an average of 1.5 billion cubic meters per year, and groundwater reserves decreasing by an average of 38 million cubic meters per year. Under the high radioactive forcing scenario(RCP8.5), the average precipitation increases by 0.8 mm per year, the average temperature increases by 0.06 degrees Celsius per year, the surface water flow is 1.37 billion cubic meters per year, and the groundwater reserves decrease by an average of 34 million cubic meters per year.更多还原