【摘要】 为准确模拟台风路径和强度,采用WRF模式比较不同微物理过程和积云对流过程参数化方案对台风路径和强度模拟的影响,并基于集合预报方法考虑对台风预报系统误差进行优化。选用4种微物理过程方案和3种积云对流参数化方案,针对1213号台风"启德"进行模拟,结果表明不同的参数化方案对台风路径和强度的预报结果有明显影响,积云对流过程参数化方案相对于微物理过程参数化方案更加敏感。基于不同参数化方案扰动成员的集合平均预报方法,对于台风路径和强度的模拟误差均有明显改善,台风路径误差随时间增幅较小,其结果优于全部12个单方案试验的模拟结果;从台风强度方面来看,基于集合预报方法模拟得到的台风强度变化趋势与实况结果一致,且误差较小,优于大多数试验方案。结果表明:采用不同微物理过程和积云对流过程参数化方案的组合构建的集合预报模型,对于台风路径和强度的模拟均有一定程度改善,减小了采用不同参数化方案产生的路径不确定性,使其在台风"启德"的路径模拟上与实况更为接近,可为提升台风预报能力提供科学参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 To accurately simulate the typhoon track and intensity,the WRF model was used to compare the sensitivity of different microphysical processes parameterization and cumulus convection parameterization on typhoon track and intensity simulation.The ensemble prediction method was been considered on the effect of the track and intensity error of typhoon Kai-tak.Four microphysical parameterization schemes and three cumulus convection parameterization schemes were selected to simulate for the track and intensity of Typhoon Kai-tak.The results show that different parameterization schemes have obvious influence on the simulation results of the track and intensity of typhoon.The parameterization scheme of cumulus convection is more sensitive than the parameterization scheme of microphysical process.Based on the ensemble prediction method of disturbing members based on different parameterization schemes,the simulation accurate of typhoon track and intensity is improved obviously.The error of typhoon track increases little with time,and the result is better than the simulation results of all twelve single schemes.From the aspect of typhoon intensity,the trend of typhoon intensity based on the ensemble prediction method is consistent with the actual result,which is better than the most of the test schemes.The results show that the ensemble prediction model constructed with different microphysical parameterization schemes and cumulus convection parameterization schemes can improve the simulation of typhoon track and intensity,reducing the track uncertainty produced by different parameterization schemes,which can provide a scientific reference for improving the forecasting ability of typhoon.更多还原