【摘要】 本文发展了一种加权平均方法，用于综合考虑地震危险性分析中的专家意见。其中假定接近综合结果的专家意见具有的权系数较大，这样可以合理反映专家意见的一致性与差异性，另外，利用随机加权方法估计综合结果及权系数的不确定性，给出其统计特征量。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,a kind of weighted mean method is developed to synthesize the experts’opinions in seismic risk analysis.It is assumed that the experts’ opinion which is more close to the synthetical result has a more large weighting coefficient.The synthetical result obtained can reasonably reflect the coordinate and the difference of the experts’ opinions.In addition,the random weighting method is introduced to estimate the uncertainties in synthetical result and weighting coefficients of experts’opinions,and gives out their standard deviation and confidence interval.更多还原