【摘要】 本文根据时间、人口及区域差异对217次成灾地震的直接经济损失样本数据做了无量纲处理,并对处理后的无量纲样本数值按震级和震中烈度分别作了统计分析。在回归函数的基础上,结合震级-震中烈度联合分布律构建了基于贝叶斯模型的快速评估方法。该方法同时考虑了震级和震中烈度对直接经济损失的影响,并且充分运用了两者之间的非线性关系以提高快速评估的准确性。验算结果表明,该方法对于地震直接经济损失快速评估具有一定的有效性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Considering time,population and regional difference,dimensionless processing is taken for 217 direct economic loss sample data of disastrous earthquakes in this article. The dimensionless values are statistically analyzed according to the magnitude and epicentral intensity respectively. Based on these,the rapid evaluation method on the basis of Bayesian model is established with the combination of magnitude and epicentral intensity joint distribution law. The nonlinear relationship between magnitude and epicentral intensity is fully considered in the model,and the double parameters are used to rapidly and accurately evaluate the direct economic loss. The checking results indicate that the proposed method is effective.更多还原