【摘要】 2011年日本海沟发生的9级地震启示日本方面对其南海海槽的地震和海啸危险性重新进行评价,其海啸危险也引起了我国民众的关注。本文在日本南海海槽地震活动性和历史海啸事件记录资料分析的基础上,运用地震烈度评估类似的方法,从我国有记录的1498年、1707年、1854年3次日本南海海槽地震海啸事件分析认为,若日本南海海槽将来发生8~8.5级的巨大地震,产生的海啸对我国江浙沪区域的最大影响强度可评估为m=1级。更多还原

【Abstract】 2011 M9. 0 earthquake occurred in Japanese trench make the Japanese to re-assess the potential earthquake and tsunami hazard in Nankai Trough,consequently Chinese people also pay attention to the tsunami risk along Chinese coast. Based on the analysis of seismicity in Nankai Trough and Chinese historical tsunami documents of the year of 1498、1707、1854,applied similar method of earthquake intensity assessment,we assess that the maximum tsunami intensity scale may be m = 1 in Jiangsu-Shanghai-Zhejiang coast if M8-8. 5 earthquake occur in Nankai Trough in the future. Once Nankai Trough great earthquake occur,induced-tsunami effect can not be ignored in China.更多还原