【摘要】 选用震级、震中烈度、极震区面积、Ⅴ度区以上面积、地震预报、抗震设防烈度、设计基本地震加速度值、房屋倒塌面积、房屋破坏面积(中等破坏及以上)、男女性别比、受灾区人口密度、地震时间、震源深度13个因子作为地震人员伤亡的影响因素,在定性分析的基础上,运用SPSS、AMOS软件,选用1949年至2010年间发生在我国的362次成灾地震进行数据分析,构建地震人员伤亡影响因素结构方程模型,综合分析各个影响因素对人员伤亡的影响程度。模型的GFI为0.911,RMSEA为0.081,PGFI为0.607,PNFI为0.596,NC为3.077,表明模型拟合效果良好,适配合理,具有简约适配度。分析表明:房屋倒塌面积、房屋破坏面积(中等破坏及以上)、震中烈度、震级、五度区以上面积是影响地震人员伤亡的五项最主要影响因素,减少房屋的倒塌和破坏情况、进行地震预报是减少地震人员伤亡的主要措施,并按重要性分别提出关键措施、一般措施和其他措施,为区域防灾减灾工作提供建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper takes the thirteen factors,namely magnitude,epicentral intensity,meizoseismic area,the area with seismic intensity higher than V,earthquake prediction,seismic fortification intensity,design basic acceleration of ground motion,the area where houses are collapsed,the area where houses are destroyed(medium damage and above),the ratio of male to female,population density of the affected area,seismic time,focal depth,as the influential factors to the earthquake casualties.On the basis of qualitative analysis,we adopt SPSS and AMOS software to analyze the relationship between the factors and earthquake casualties according to the data of three hundred and sixty-two earthquake disasters happened in our country from 1949 to 2010 and build the structural equation model of earthquake casualties influencing factors and comprehensively analyse each factor’s influential coefficients of earthquake casualties.The goodness-of-fit index of the model is 0.911,root mean square error of approximation is 0.081,parsimony goodness-of-fit index is 0.607,parsimony-adjusted NFI is 0.596,normed chi-square is 3.077, all these show that the model is fitting well with the simple goodness of fit.Analysis shows that the area where houses are collapsed,the area where houses are destroyed(medium damage and above),epicentral intensity,magnitude,the area with seismic intensity higher than V are the five important factors.Reducing the houses collapse and destruction,making earthquake prediction are the main measures to reduce earthquake casualties.According to the importance of the factors,we put forward key,general and other measures,provide recommendations for the work of the regional disaster prevention and mitigation.更多还原