【摘要】 本文利用基于广义帕累托分布的超阈值分布模型,对中国大陆活动地块边界带强震震级分布特征开展研究,给出了各活动地块边界带强震震级的广义帕累托分布参数估计。结果表明,广义帕累托分布较好地拟合了各边界带强震数据,形状参数估计均为负值,说明对应震级应有上限,因此广义帕累托分布为潜在震级上限提供了一种自然的刻画。在此基础上,估计了震级上限,并给出了分布0.99997高分位数估计,通过与历史最大震级比较发现,高分位数估计相对稳健。在地震发生过程为泊松过程假设下,推导了广义帕累托分布与广义极值分布之间的联系,揭示了一种利用强震数据推断最大震级分布的可能途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,we employ peaks over threshold method based on generalized Pareto distribution to analyze the characteritics of the great earthquake magnitude distributions for active tectonic boundaries in Chinese mainland.The results show that the generalized Pareto distribution is well fitting for the earthquake data,and the shape parameter estimations are negative,corresponding to finite earthquake magnitude,so the generalized Pareto distribution provides a natural description for potential upper limit earthquake magnitude.On this basis,upper limit earthquake magnitude and 0.99997 quantile are estimated.By the comparison between the historical maximum magnitude and high quantile,we find that the quantile provides much more stable and robust characteristic than the traditional absolute maximum magnitude.Under the Poisson process hypothesis,we establish the relations between the generalized Pareto distribution and the generalized extreme value distribution and propose a method for the estimation of maximum magnitude distribution with strong earthquake data.更多还原