【摘要】 基于印度板块与欧亚板块碰撞的形态、应力方向及其地貌特征,本文对1895-2016年的7级以上地震活动划分了3个轮回,每个轮回分为两个活动阶段,结果表明3个轮回的地震空间分布有较好的重复性,印度板块向北的推进过程,控制了我国大陆地震活动的阶段性及其分布形态。类比历史地震活动特征,提出未来我国大陆地震活动的主体地区为祁连山褶皱系附近,存在发生2-3次7级以上地震的可能,受印度板块继续向北推挤的影响,我国西南地区也存在发生7级以上地震的可能。更多还原

【Abstract】 On the basis of the shape,stress direction and geomorphological features of Indian and Eurasian Plate collision.Ms≥7 seismic activity from 1895 to 2016 is divided into three cycles.And each cycle is divided into two activity periods.This result shows that the seismic space distribution of the three cycles is well repetitive,and the seismic activity stage and its distribution shape in the mainland of China have been controlled by the pushing process of Indian Plate.Compared with the historical seismic activity features,the main seismic activity in the mainland of China would occur around Ch′i-lien Mountains fold system.Ms≥7 earthquakes might happen twice or three times in Northwest China,as the effect of Indian Plate pushing northward.更多还原