【摘要】 从康德拉季耶夫(Kondratieff)到熊彼特(Schumpeter)以及1940年代的"长期停滞主义者"(the secular stagnationists)的长周期分析,几乎都未能给他们对长周期的理解提供一个逻辑一贯的理论基础,这源自于他们将资本主义社会中社会关系的基本结构视作既定的。这需要对资本主义社会中资本积累的结构性条件进行细致的分析,进而澄清对"马克思主义积累的阶段理论"的误解。立足于"积累的阶段理论",采用一些初步假设进而构建一个关于长周期的"政治—经济"理论是理解这一问题的关键。将这一理论与其他学者的理论进行比较表明:提供一个强调多重力量造成资本主义经济扩张和收缩更替节奏的框架是必要的。更多还原

【Abstract】 The long cycle analysis made by Kondratieff, Schumpeter and the secular stagnationists in the 1940s almost all failed to provide a theoretical basis with a consistent logic for their understanding of the long cycle, because they regarded the basic structure of social relations in the capitalist society as established. It is necessary to make detailed analysis of the structural conditions of capital accumulation in the capitalist society, and then clarify the misunderstanding of the "Marxist theory on stages of accumulation". To understand this issue, the key is to make some preliminary assumption and then build a "political-economic" theory about the long cycle. It is shown by the comparison of this theory with other scholars’ theories that it is necessary to provide a framework emphasizing that multiple factors cause the rhythm of substitution between capitalist economic expansion and contraction.更多还原