【摘要】 碳排放核算是城市低碳发展研究的基础。作为三大城市碳排放源产业之一,交通运输业是重点关注对象。以京津冀交通运输业碳排放核算为起点,采用偏最小二乘法开展驱动因子分析,通过两阶段参数估计评估各影响因素的变化趋势。结果表明:在京津冀城市群中,北京将最先达到碳排放峰值;人口规模、人均GDP、能源强度与货物周转量是城市群交通运输业碳排放的主要影响因素,且具有两阶段变化特征;在一体化背景下,京津冀地区需开展加快产业结构升级、支持新能源汽车的研发与发展智能交通建设等交通运输领域的减排举措。更多还原

【Abstract】 Carbon emission accounting is the basis for urban low carbon development research.As one of the carbon source industries of the three major cities,the transportation industry is the focus of attention.Based on the carbon emission accounting of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei transportation industry,this study uses partial least squares method to carry out driving factor analysis,and evaluates the trend of each influencing factor through two-stage parameter estimation.The results show that:in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,Beijing will first reach the peak of carbon emissions.Population size,per capita GDP,energy intensity and cargo turnover rate are the main factors affecting the carbon emissions of urban agglomeration transportation;they have two-stage change characteristics.In the context of integration,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region needs to accelerate the transfer of industrial structure,and the transportation sector should support the research and development of new energy vehicles and develop energy-saving measures such as intelligent transportation construction.更多还原