【摘要】 运用中国30个省份1990～2016年的面板数据,从作物多样性视角,采用CDI和d等作物多样性指数,考察了农业种植结构对农业产值和农业面源污染的影响。研究结果表明:作物多样性与农业产值之间存在显著的"倒U型"曲线关系。当前中国非优势作物(比较优势较弱)多样性偏高,对农业产值产生抑制作用,非优势作物多样性每增加1个单位,农业产值将减少1.5%;对农业面源污染产生正向作用,非优势作物多样性每增加1个单位,农业面源污染将增加1.3%。而区域优势作物多样性的增加对农业面源污染有较大的抑制效应,优势作物多样性每增加1个单位,农业面源污染将减少1.5%;作物多样性对种植业产值和农业面源污染综合指数的提高有负面影响;在农业劳动力大量转移背景下,减少作物多样性种植有利于农业产值的提高;当自然灾害较严重时,作物多样性的增加有利于农业产值的增长。因此各区域要立足于本省的资源禀赋条件,减少比较优势较弱的农作物品种和种植面积,增加优势农产品,特色农产品种植,培育农业品牌,以提高农业收入和增强生态环境保护。同时,农业基础设施的完善以及农民防灾减灾意识的提高有利于增强抵御自然灾害的能力,促进绿色的现代化农业的发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper investigated the effects of crop planting structure on agricultural output value and non-point source pollution by analysising the relation of crop diversity, agricultural output value, and released pollutants. The panel data of 30 provinces in China from 1990 to 2016 were included. The results showed that crop diversity had an inverted u-shape effect on agricultural output value and there were greatly diversified crop categories for non-dominant crops(relatively weak comparative advantage) currently, which had an inhibitory effect on agricultural output value and had a positive effect on agricultural non-point source pollution. Holding all other things constant, a 1 increase of the crop diversity will lead to a decrease in agricultural output value of 1.5% and an increase in agricultural non-point source pollution of 1.3%, respectively. The increase of regional dominant crop diversity had a greater inhibitory effect on agricultural non-point source pollution, when the crop diversity rises 1, agricultural non-point source pollution decreases 1.5 percent. Besides, the crop diversity had a negative effect on comprehensive indicators of output value and pollution. With the outflowing of agricultural labor, reducing crop diversity benefits agricultural output value; the increase of crop diversity is beneficial to the growth of agricultural output value when natural ecosystems are fragile. In order to improve agricultural income and enhance ecological environment, the crop varieties and planting areas should be reduced for those weaker comparative crops, meanwhile developing agricultural products, local agricultural products, and building agricultural brands will substantially help. For other factors we discussed, agricultural infrastructure, farmers’ awareness of disaster prevention are significantly affecting the agricultural outputs and need be addressed properly.更多还原