【摘要】 本文基于1990—2016年我国30个省份的面板数据,采用空间自回归模型(SAR)和空间误差模型(SEM),分析了农业产业集聚对农业面源污染的影响机制。结果表明:我国农业面源污染存在明显的空间相关性性,且该空间相关性存在先削弱后增强的趋势。在全国层面,农业面源污染与农业产业集聚之间呈现出"N"形关系,即随着农业产业集聚度的提高,农业面源污染将呈现增长、降低、再增长的趋势;工业污染、产业结构对农业面源污染产生正向作用,而科技研发、城镇化则产生负向作用。区域层面,农业面源污染与农业产业集聚之间的关系在东北、东部、中部、西部分别表现为倒"N"形、倒"U"形、"N"形、倒"U"形,表明在特定阶段农业产业集聚可以促进面源污染减排;工业污染会加剧东部、中部的农业面源污染;科技创新会加剧中部、减轻东北、中部、西部的农业面源污染;城镇化会加剧东北、减轻东部和西部的农业面源污染;产业结构会加剧东部、减轻东北和中部的农业面源污染。更多还原

【Abstract】 The theoretical mechanism of agricultural agglomeration affecting agricultural non-point source pollution is analyzed and three hypotheses are put forward.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in mainland China except Tibet from 1990 to 2016,the spatial auto-regressive model(SAR)and spatial error model(SEM)are used to carry out empirical tests.The results show that(1)There is a significant spatial correlation between agricultural non-point source pollution in China,and the spatial correlation decreases first and then increases.(2)At the national level,the relationship between agricultural non-point source pollution and agricultural agglomeration is "N".Industrial pollution and industrial structure have positive effects on agricultural non-point source pollution,while scientific research and development and urbanization have negative effects.(3)At the regional level,the relationship between agricultural non-point source pollution and agricultural agglomeration is "inverted N",inverted U"."N" "inverted U" in Northeast,East,Central and West respectively;industrial pollution will aggravate agricultural non-point source pollution in East and Central China;scientific and technological innovation will aggravate agricultural non-point source pollution in Centrall China,alleviate agricultural non-point source pollution in Northeast,Central and Western China;urbanization will aggravate the non-point source pollution in East China.In the north,the agricultural non-point source pollution in the East and West will be reduced,and the industrial structure will aggravate the agricultural non-point source pollution in the east,northeast and central regions.更多还原