【摘要】 在建筑物施工及运营期间,掌握建筑物变形规律并及时预测其变形趋势在保障建筑物的安全使用方面发挥着重要作用。由于单一的灰色GM(1,1)模型预测精度不高,本文提出了一种预测模型——灰色自回归组合模型,该模型结合了灰色GM(1,1)模型和自回归模型的优点。为验证该模型预测精度优于灰色GM(1,1)模型,本文通过某工程实例中的2个变形观测点的观测数据进行建模,结果表明,组合模型的预测精度高于单一灰色GM(1,1)模型。更多还原

【Abstract】 It is very important to keep the construction safety that holding the deformation rule and forecasting the deformation trend of the constructions.Due to the forecast precision of GM(1,1) is not so high,a forecast model was presented in this paper.The model consists of the gray model and auto-regressive model,which is named as gray-autoregressive combined model.In order to verify its feasibility,the observations from two monitor points in a project case were tested.The results showed that the forecast precision of the model was better than that of GM(1,1).更多还原