【摘要】 本文从铜街子水库诱发地震的基本地质条件着手，采用了水库综合影响系数、概率预测、信息量预测、模糊预测等方法对其最大诱震震级进行了评估，并针对铜街子水库诱发地震的复式衰减特性，建立了指数自回归模型，对诱发地震的活动趋势进行了预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the geological condition of Tongjizi reservoir,the maximum magnitude of Tongjizi reservoir induced seismicity is evaluated by means of some semiquantitative methods which indude reservoircompreshensivecoefficient,probability predicting,information predicting and fuzzy predicting.On the complex decay of Tongjizi reservoir induced seismicity,an exponential autoregressive model is constructed and seismic activity tendency is predicted.更多还原