【摘要】 以救灾储备系统建设相对完善的云南省为例,对近年地震频发的滇西北地区部分县进行实地调研,提出了基于专家方法的县级救灾物资库存量估算模式,即依托于当地灾害应急预案中的灾害等级,设计相应的量表,向专家组调查,对不同灾级下的物资需求量进行估算.运用该模式进行了大姚县救灾物资储备库存研究,得到救灾物资库存量需求图,在预知需救助人口数后,即可由图对应得到物资需求量,从而辅助当地救助物资储备量的决策.同时不同物资的库存量需求图呈现较大差异,单位救助能力强的救灾物资,需求量呈分级跳跃性,储备物资时,应充分考虑其特性,优化库存,合理储备.更多还原

【Abstract】 County storage is a basic part of Chinese inventory system for disaster relief materials.This paper illustrates a new mode based on expert method to estimate county inventory: first,survey a group of inventory experts with questionnaires;second,based on survey result,estimate demands of local disaster relief materials at different damage levels.Northwest Yunnan suffers frequency earthquakes and owns a better local storage system for disaster relief materials.For Dayao county in Northwest Yunnan,inventory demand figure of the number of need-help persons and relative demand are obtained,such figures can assist local governmental decision on disaster relief materials inventory.The demand characters of different materials vary,the stronger per-help ability is,the more obviously demand curve skips.It is better to consider this demand character to make the storage plan and program the inventory.更多还原