【摘要】 地震风险分析不但是国家或者地区中长期规划的基础,也是地震应急时的重要决策依据,因此建立适用于不同时空尺度的地震风险分析模型是当前研究的重点.本文通过收集中国大陆大量地震灾害基础资料,根据实际地震影响烈度分布特点,改进了陈颙等的地震脆弱性模型,形成了地震宏观风险分析模型,并在云南省县级尺度上与传统的建筑物分类清单法(ATC-13)计算结果进行了对比,结果显示两者在区域或更小的时空尺度上同样具有良好的可比性,因此地震宏观风险分析模型不失为一个具有普适性的模型,具有应用价值.更多还原

【Abstract】 Seismic risk assessment is not only the basis for long-term planning,but also provides support for emergency decision-making in earthquake emergency,therefore it is a focus in current modeling works,and can be applied to different temporal and spatial scales.Based on a collection earthquake disaster information,and actual impact of earthquake intensity distribution,we improved seismic vulnerability model by Chen Yong,and produced a macro seismic risk assessment model.Compared with traditional buildings and categorized vulnerability list(ATC-13) in county-level scale in Yunnan province,data showed that both at the regional and/or smaller scale it has a good comparability,so the macro seismic risk assessment model can be thought as a universal model which can be used in reality.更多还原