【摘要】 针对地震孕灾环境的复杂性和危险度的随机性、模糊性,在分析区域地震环境影响因素和突变行为的基础上,基于尖点突变模型,建立了区域地震环境突变分析模型,并构建了区域地震危险度突变层次结构体系,划分了区域地震危险度指标分级标准;基于经典突变理论及其推广形式,提出了区域地震危险度评价的突变方法,结合GIS空间分析技术实现区域地震潜在危险度的可视化.该方法首先利用GIS技术对底层评价指标赋值且量纲为一化,根据各层次指标体系的特点选取相应的突变模型,并逐层递归运算出区域地震危险度的总突变值,与地震危险度多准则评价标准比较得到危险分级;其次,利用GIS的可视化功能绘制出区域地震潜在危险度评价图,从而综合评判区域的地震危险度.最后,通过实例计算与分析,验证了该方法的可行性和合理性,评价结果可为区域地震危险度分析和潜在地震危险度评价提供理论依据.更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the complexity of seismic disaster-pregnant environment,the randomness and fuzziness of seismic hazard,regional seismic environment mutation analysis model was established based on the cusp catastrophe model,on the basis of the analysis of regional seismic environmental impact factors and mutant behavior.The mutation hierarchy system of regional seismic hazard was built,and grading standard for regional seismic hazard assessment was divided.The catastrophe method for regional seismic hazard assessment was proposed based on the classic mutation theory and its promotion in the form.Visualization of regional seismic hazard was achieved combined with GIS spatial analysis techniques.Firstly,the bottom evaluating indicators were assigned values using GIS technology,and standardized.According to the characteristics of index system,the corresponding mutation model was identified,and the total value of mutation of regional seismic hazard was calculated by recursion.The seismic hazard classification was obtained comparing with multi-criteria hazard evaluation level.Secondly,the assessment map of potential seismic hazard was drafted using GIS,then the regional seismic hazard assessment was achieved.Finally,through the example calculation and analysis,the feasibility and rationality of the method was verified.The evaluation results can provide a theoretical basis for the potential seismic hazard analysis and seismic hazard assessment.更多还原