【摘要】 近年来苹果市场价格波动时有发生,分析我国苹果市场的价格特点和波动规律对我国农产品生产供给侧改革具有重要意义。该研究以我国富士苹果的价格指数为研究对象,运用ARIMA模型对苹果市场价格进行短期预测,并构建苹果市场价格波动警限,进行价格波动预警。结果表明:模型能够较好预测苹果价格波动变化,以期为我国苹果市场信息变化提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,price fluctuations in the apple market have frequently occurred.Analyzing the price characteristics and fluctuation rules of Chinese apple market is of great significance to the reform of Chinese agricultural product supply side.This study used ARIMA model to make a short-term prediction of the ‘Fuji’ apple price index in China,and conduct early warning of price fluctuations in the apple market.The results showed that the model could predict the price fluctuation of apple and provided references for the changes of apple market information in China.更多还原