【摘要】 为了有效制定城市管网生命线系统的非工程性防灾减灾措施,利用GIS的空间分析功能评估管网生命线的脆弱性和风险性。通过顶层设计结合工程性防护措施与非工程性保护措施可以降低防灾减灾的盲目性,进而形成统一规划的动态防护保障框架。根据Johansson构建整个管网生命线网络的准则,考虑到不同节点的差异,以管线流的供给与需求确定节点介数来判断节点的权重,得到管件接口处节点的脆弱性指标。在灾险理论的基础上,利用定性与定量相结合的方法,建立了管网生命线系统的风险性评价指标。最后,在获得单元区域内管网风险指数后,利用ARCGIS导入属性图层展现不同区域的风险状况,得到城市不同等级管网生命线的危险区域图。结果表明,城市管网生命线需建立一个整体的联防管理非工程性防灾减灾体系,进行专业化与精细化管理,并在单元区域控制下降低灾险发生的频率。更多还原

【Abstract】 The paper is aimed at exploring and preparing effectively enough non-structural disaster prevention and mitigation measures for urban lifeline protection systems( ULPS) through the spatial analysis of the geographical information systems( GIS),though further improvement has to be done by making the effective disaster risk assessment in more comprehensive ways. To avoid the blindness of disaster prevention and mitigation in a modern approach,we do believe it is necessary to combine the technical engineering-oriented protection measures with the non-engineering-oriented protection strategy from the top-level management. First of all,comprehensive investigation has to be done to build up a complex network of ULPS that is capable of obtaining nodes’ vulnerability according to Johansson’s principle. While taking into account the gap among the nodes of ULPS,the gap represents a given node’s weight which reflects its supply and demand.And,then,the risk assessment can be done by joining the qualitative and quantitative methods of incorporating ULPS ’s regional disaster vulnerability with the risk assessment models so as to build up the influential hazard-leading index system with key interface of ULPS in GIS. And,finally,for any given unit area,urban risk and hazard likely-to-be leading pictures should be drawn to vision the district-oriented disaster-forecasting probabilities. In so doing,the entire urban area can then be divided into five zones based on the hazard-index analysis system,with particular attention paid to the danger and hazard-prone zones. The results of our research focus on the non-engineering protective measures have shown that it is of great ULS need to set up a comprehensive and integrated management system of ULPS in terms of joint prevention and protection strategy. The method we have proposed has already been primarily adopted in the urban disaster prevention and mitigation of Handan,Hebei province,China with satisfactory results in preventing and relieving disasters in the ULPS sphere.更多还原