【摘要】 区域地质灾害评价有效性周期是指评价可靠性的持续时间,它的影响因素主要包括地质灾害背景条件的复杂性、研究区的范围或规模、突发性自然事件以及人类工程活动等。通过分析这些因素对区域地质灾害评价的有效性周期的影响模式,提出了确定区域地质灾害评价有效性周期的基本方法。通过对汶川地震前后的青川县滑坡危险性区划进行比较,对北京市2001年、2009年的地质灾害易发性评价结果进行比较,分析了确定区域地质灾害评价有效性周期的必要性,同时验证了确定有效性周期的方法的适宜性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The present paper intends to make an analysis of the valid period of regional geological hazards by taking Wenchuan Earthquake and a comparative study of the susceptibility assessments results of Beijing in 2001 and 2009 as the case study samples.As is known,the primary regional geological hazards assessment should be made static by nature,however,the factors affecting the geological hazards are various and evolutionary,which may cause a scaling problem in time and make the assessment results totally invalid,and even may lead to unpredictable hazards.With human activity and interference getting more and more rampant and uncontrollable,there is an aggravating tendency to the problem of the unpredictable latent risks.Therefore,it is urgent for the geological and seismic scientists to study and find the valid period of such hazards and make available assessments.The so-called valid period of regional geological hazards assessment refers to the prediction of the periodical change and the likely-to-happen regional geological hazards.And for this purpose,it is essential to analyze the factors affecting the periodical evolution,change and likely-to-happen hazards,which mainly involve the background and conditions of geological seismic hazards,the scale or scope of the areas under study,the abrupt natural events and human activities concerned and so on.Such regional geological hazard assessment is mainly concerned with the internal behaviors of the time effect of regional geological activities,mainly caused by the spatial heterogeneity and time-elapsed nonlinear seismic events.This paper has thus proposed basic applications of the ways of determining the valid periods of regional geological hazard assessment by analyzing the modes and the factors impacting such period’s assessment.And,finally,comparing the landslides hazard assessments of Qingchuan County before and after the Wenchuan Earthquake in 2009 and the comparison of the susceptibility assessment results of Beijing in 2001 and 2009,we have analyzed the necessity and significance of determining such hazards,and verified the appropriateness of the method to be applied to determining such sorts of hazards.更多还原