【摘要】 民航事故征候的分析和预测是民航安全研究的重要内容。掌握民航事故征候的发展状况并据此提出相应的安全措施,可减少民航事故的发生。在民航事故征候灰色预测基础上,引入马尔可夫链(Markov Chains)预测理论,建立事故征候的灰色马尔可夫预测模型。该模型具有灰色预测和马尔可夫链预测的优点,不仅提高了对波动性较大的随机变量的预测精度,同时还拓宽了灰色预测的应用范围。对某一航空公司过载大事件的灰色马尔可夫预测和检验分析表明,事故征候的灰色马尔可夫预测模型精度高于GM(1,1)模型预测精度。研究表明,灰色马尔可夫预测模型可用于民航事故征候的预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper is aimed at presenting its authors’ analysis and their renovated model for forecasting civil aviation incidents probability with the purpose to understand and monitor the influential factors so as to reduce such disastrous happenings in the future. Based on the grey method, we have presented ways on how to apply Markov chains to the forecasting practice and established our own Markov grey model in this paper. The proposed model combines both the merits of grey forecasting and those of Markov chains forecasting. Thus, the improved model can not only reduce the random fluctuation of incident data affecting forecasting accuracy but also helps to extend the application sphere of the grey model. Therefore, the model is expected to be taken as an available device for the future civil aviation safety management and control.更多还原