【摘要】 从风险分析的不确定性入手,建立了管道风险分析的质量评价观点。基于油气管道风险分析的实施步骤,提出用检查表法对风险分析的完整过程进行质量评价,利用风险评价员的一致性和有效性指标对其评价结果进行质量优劣评定。鉴于油气管道风险分析中普遍采用评分指标法对事故发生概率进行估计,依据采取这种行为所要承担损失风险的大小程度,提出用风险函数法对这种半定量评价法的合理性进行质量评价。实例应用分析表明,本文提出的质量评价方法不仅可以辨识风险分析过程中的人因缺陷,而且可对油气管道风险分析结果的质量进行量化评价,有利于提高人们对风险分析结果的认同度。更多还原

【Abstract】 The present paper aims to introduce the authors’ analysis of the uncertainly of pipeline accidents and magnitude of the damages caused by the accidents.In our study,we start with the uncertainty analysis by establishing the quality evaluation standpoint of the analysis.We suggest that the quality evaluation be carried out on the whole process of risk evaluation by checking the list of risk factors identified to see if the assessment is effective or not by using the reliability of the risk assessment in parallel parameters.Based on the study of the operating steps of oil and gas pipeline risk,the paper applies the Indexing System Method in the oil and gas pipeline risk analysis,and transforms the main issue into the magnitude of risk subjected to this action,the quality evaluation is performed on whether quasi-quantifying evaluation method is reasonable by using risk function method.The analysis of the practical use of our ideas shows that the quality(evaluation) method given here can not only help to identify the defects caused by human factors in the process of risk analysis,but also contribute to general identification of the results gained from the analysis.更多还原