【摘要】 基于PSR模型和相关统计数据,构建安徽省土地生态安全评价指标体系,采用熵权法对2010—2016年安徽省土地生态安全状况进行评测,运用GM(1,1)模型对2017—2020年土地生态安全状况做出预警。结果表明:安徽省土地生态安全状况从2010年的0.355 (重警)上升到2016年的0.671(中警),土地生态安全状况有所好转,系统压力层、系统状态层以及系统响应层指数均呈上升趋势。2017—2020年的预警值分别为0.776(中警)、0.875(轻警)、0.987(无警)和1.113(无警),表明未来4年安徽省土地生态状况将持续好转。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on PSR model and related statistical data,the evaluation index system of land ecological security in Anhui Province was constructed.The ecological security status of Anhui Province was evaluated by entropy method in 2010-2016.The GM(1,1) model was used for early warning of land ecological security status in 2017-2020.The results showed that: The ecological security status of Anhui Province had increased from 0.355(heavy police) in 2010 to 0.671(the middle police) in 2016,and the ecological security of the land has improved.The indexes of system pressure layer,system state layer and system response layer showed an increasing tendency.The warning values are 0.776(middle police),0.875(light police),0.987(no police) and 1.113(no police) during 2017-2020,indicating that the ecological security status of the land will be further improved in the next four years.更多还原