【作者】 王莉；

【导师】 田水承； 马宪民；

【作者基本信息】 西安科技大学 ， 安全技术及工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 瓦斯灾害是威胁我国煤矿安全的头号杀手。煤矿瓦斯爆炸危险源系统是一个复杂的社会技术系统,是含有人-机-物-环-管理等诸多因素的集合。全面系统地认识各种导致瓦斯事故的危险源,进行瓦斯爆炸事故机理、预警研究是目前煤矿安全生产工作中迫切需要解决的课题。因此本文在三类危险源划分的基础上,对瓦斯爆炸危险源系统结构和事故的机理进行分析,进而开展三类危险源的预警研究,在新的视角下为煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故预防和预警提供了理论探索和尝试,具有一定的理论价值和现实意义。首先,对三类危险源划分进行重新界定,并对煤矿瓦斯爆炸危险源的系统复杂性进行了探讨,认为瓦斯爆炸危险源系统具有高度动态性、复杂性和耗散结构特征；利用解释结构模型方法,建立了煤矿瓦斯爆炸三类危险源系统的解释结构模型,通过建立邻接矩阵和可达矩阵对系统的结构要素进行分析,按照对瓦斯爆炸事故的直接影响程度将危险源归纳为四个层次,为煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故机理分析和瓦斯爆炸危险源预警自愈调控机制的提出奠定了基础。其次,从机理方法论的角度对瓦斯爆炸事故机理进行研究,通过分析事故的发生、发展、演化和应急过程,阐述了瓦斯爆炸的原则性机理、原理性机理以及事故的发生、发展、演化过程等流程性机理。认为煤矿生产过程中三类危险源之间动态的、交互的、反馈的作用是导致瓦斯爆炸事故发生、发展及演化的原因。第三,提出了煤矿瓦斯爆炸危险源预警的自愈调控机制,明确了自愈调控的定义、机理和功能,认为瓦斯危险源预警系统应通过对三类危险源的控制和调节来实现其自愈调控机制；从熵的流动角度诠释预警系统自愈调控机制的实现过程,进而对煤矿瓦斯危险源预警管理的对象、目标体系、内容进行阐述,建立了煤矿三类危险源预警模型,为三类危险源预警方法研究提供了模型依据。第四,提出了针对煤矿瓦斯爆炸三类危险源的不同特点采用对应的三种预警方法。对于第一类危险源,建立多传感器模糊数据融合的第一类危险源预警模型；对于第二类危险源,根据集对理论,构造了联系度函数公式簇,提出了基于集对分析联系度的瓦斯爆炸第二类危险源预警方法；针对第三类危险源,借鉴熵理论与和谐理论,提出了和谐熵的概念和公式表达,建立基于和谐熵分析的瓦斯爆炸第三类危险源预警方法。并分别通过实例验证三种预警方法是可行的。从和谐理论、熵理论的角度研究瓦斯爆炸第三类危险源的预警问题,是此领域研究新的窗口和尝试。第五,通过对瓦斯爆炸事故驱动因子的归纳与分解,得到瓦斯爆炸三类危险源预警初步指标体系。采用粗糙集理论应用工具箱Rosetta软件进行指标约简过程,通过属性约简将初步的60个瓦斯爆炸三类危险源预警指标约简到54个,降低模式匹配搜索量。采用结构方程模型方法,进行变量设计和结构方程模型设计；通过调查问卷的设计及数据收集,采用AMOS7.0软件对模型的拟合情况进行检验并进行修正；提出煤矿瓦斯爆炸三类危险源系统三类驱动因子之间影响机理的假设,并且运算得到各隐变量和显变量之间的路径系数,结果支持了煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故三类危险源之间的影响关系假设；按照不同驱动因子之间的影响关系排序,证实了三类危险源之间的相互影响、相互作用,证明了第三类危险源在事故致因中的重要作用,尤其是安全管理组织因素,是对诸多驱动因子影响最大、关系最强的因素。最终验证预警指标体系建立的合理性。最后,对煤矿瓦斯爆炸危险源预警系统结构进行设计和构架,并对煤矿瓦斯爆炸危险源预警三个子系统进行功能和预警流程分析；对瓦斯爆炸应急推理中的案例知识表示、案例检索算法、案例学习与修正步骤等进行阐述,为瓦斯爆炸预警系统的信息化实现提供了依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Gas accidents are the leading causes of deaths in China coal mines. The gas explosion hazard system is a complex socio-technical system which is composed of people, machines, matter and management factors. So it would be urgent to solve problems in coal mine production process such as comprehensive and systematic identification of all kinds of hazards, gas explosion mechanism, and early-warning of gas explosion accidents. This paper provided a new theory exploration on gas explosion prevention and early-warning with great significance on theoretical value and practical meaning. Main contents were as follows.①This paper redefined the three-type of hazards division theory and discussed the complexity of gas explosion hazards system. It considered that the gas explosion system was dynamic, complex and had characters of a dissipative structure. It constituted the interpretive structural model of gas explosion three-type of hazards system based on interpretive structural modelmethod, and analyzed the structure elements of the system by establishing adjacency matrix and reachable matrix, then it reduced hazards into four levels in term of effect degree on gas explosion, which laid foundation for research on gas explosion mechanism and self-healing control of gas explosion hazards early-warning.②Gas explosion mechanism concluded occurrence, development, evolvement and emergency process by Mechanism Methodology. It analyzed principle mechanism, theory mechanism and process mechanism such as occurrence, development and evolvement process. It figured that dynamic and feedback interaction among three-type of hazards in coal mine production resulted in occurrence, development and evolvement of gas explosions.③It put forward the self-healing control mechnism of gas explosion hazards early-warning as well as the definition, principle and function of the self-healing control mechnism. This mechnism should be carried on by control and regulation of three-type of hazards. Then the objects, target system and content of gas hazards early-warning were explained. The early-warning model of three-type hazards in coal mines was established which provided a model basis for the following early-warning methods study.④Three corresponding early-warning methods were put forward aiming at different characteristics of three-type of hazards in coal mine gas explosion. As for the first type of hazards, it set up an early-warning model based on fuzzy multi-sensor data fusion. As for the second type of hazards, it constituted connection degree function formula cluster based on Set Pair theory, and the early-warning method on the second type of hazards based on connection degree of Set Pair Analysis was put forward. As for the third type of hazards, using the Entropy Theory and Harmony Theory for reference, the concept and formula of harmony entropy was put forward, and the third type of hazards early-warning method was set up by harmony entropy analysis. Examples validated that three different early-warning methods were feasible. Research on early-warning problems from angles of Entropy Theory and Harmony Theory opened a door to the study of human errors and organization early-warning.⑤Preliminary index system of gas explosion three-type of hazards early-warning was set up by inducing and decomposing of drive factors for gas explosion. The software Rosetta was used to reduce indexes by application toolbox of Rough Set theory, and it made 60 primary early-warning indexes into 54 and reduced computing work. It designed variables and the model by applying Structural Equation Model (SEM) approach. Surveys were carried out to collect data. AMOS 7.0 software was used to test whether the model was fitting or not. Hypotheses of interacting mechanism among three-type of drive factors in gas explosion hazards system, while the path coefficients between hidden variables and significant variables were computed to support those hypotheses. Drive factors compositor according to their effect relation proved that three-type of hazards did interact with each other and the third type of hazards were the principal factors. Finally it tested the rationality of early warning index system.⑥Structure of coal mine gas explosion hazards early-warning system was designed. The function and early-warning process of three subsystems were analyzed. Then it set forth the case express, case-based retrieval arithmetic, case study and revision steps which provided a basis for information implementation of gas explosion early-warning system.更多还原