【作者】 杨学利；

【导师】 张少杰；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 “粮食安全”的概念自从1983年被联合国粮农组织粮食安全委员会提出之后,作为一个全球性话题,受到各种国际性和区域性经济会议的一致关注。受全球人口增加,生产要素恶化,结构变动,气候变异以及各种偶然性因素的影响,世界粮食供需矛盾日益突出,局部粮食危机频繁出现,粮食安全受到严重的威胁。中国作为世界粮食市场的一员,国际粮食价格的剧烈变动对国内的粮食市场造成了一定的冲击。同时,随着人口的增加和居民消费水平的提高,以及工业化、城镇化的推进,国内粮食供给压力将不断加大,如何确保粮食安全的可持续发展成为关系全局的一个重大战略问题。本文在借鉴国内外研究成果的基础上,立足于可持续发展理论要求,综合应用产业经济学、技术经济学、农业经济学、资源经济学等科学理论和方法,在对粮食安全、科技进步、可持续发展和生产要素及生产函数等相关理论及文献综述的基础上,对可持续发展视角下的中国粮食安全进行了科学、深入、系统地研究,探讨了我国粮食供需形势及发展趋势、粮食流通产业发展、农业科技进步等同粮食安全相关的具体问题,分析了我国粮食供需影响因素、粮食市场构成及影响因素、粮食作物科技进步水平及模式,对可持续发展视角下中国粮食安全状况进行了综合评价,提出了基于可持续发展视角下的中国粮食安全保障措施,具有重要的现实和理论意义。本文首先对相关的理论及研究文献进行了梳理和综述,主要包括粮食安全的相关研究、可持续发展理论、科技进步的理论研究、生产要素理论及生产函数研究。通过理论综述,本文认为粮食安全是基于生态和资源可持续发展基础上的,国家或区域能够满足居民生存型粮食需求,保障居民食品品质性需求的状态,对粮食安全的评价不仅只关注当前粮食的质和量的问题,更需要关注粮食生产、农业经济、社会支撑、资源环境和农业技术等五个系统的可持续发展问题。本文还对科技进步的内涵、模式和源泉进行了综述。在生产要素理论和生产函数综述中,对生产要素理论、农业生产要素的分类以及生产函数进行了详细的介绍。本文通过分析中国粮食生产和需求现状,深入研究粮食供需各自的影响因素,采用H-P滤波分析法和回归分析法分别对中国粮食生产和需求趋势进行科学地预测。在梳理我国粮食流通体制变迁之后,分析了我国粮食市场体系现状、研究粮食市场体系构成及影响因素。本文在明确了农业科技进步的概念、过程和模式的基础上,利用索洛的增长速度方程法计算出我国粮食作物科技进步率,进而推算出粮食作物科技进步贡献率以及各投入要素对粮食产出的贡献率;采用E-S模型对我国粮食作物科技进步模式进行判定,指出发展生物化学型科技进步,对于缓解我国粮食播种面积稀少,提高单位面积产出,提高粮食总产量具有重要的战略意义。本文将可持续发展理论的思想纳入到粮食安全评价中,构建出基于可持续发展视角的中国粮食安全评价体系,并通过收集相关的统计数据,对我国粮食安全的可持续发展状况进行评价。本文认为:(1)最近十五年,我国粮食安全的可持续发展程度经历稳步发展、徘徊增长和快速发展三个阶段,粮食安全可持续发展水平持续提高。(2)在可持续发展视角下,推动国家粮食安全的可持续发展首先需要提高农业劳动生产率、农业中间消耗生产率和农用土地生产率,增加农业科技人员比例,加大对农业科技的投入,推动农业科技进步,提高农业科技贡献率。从长远来看,人口、资源、生态等因素为保障国家粮食安全提出了诸多挑战,要解决耕地有限、人口众多的中国的粮食安全问题,最为关键的就是靠农业科技创新。(3)在未来一段时间内,我国粮食安全的可持续发展状况仍将具有相当大的改善潜力。保障国家粮食安全的可持续发展必须加快推动农业科技进步,发展现代粮食流通产业,改善粮食供需结构平衡,促进粮食安全可持续发展。最后,本文在对可持续发展视角下中国粮食安全评价分析的基础上,提出保障我国粮食安全可持续发展的措施:(1)深挖粮食供给增长潜力以确保粮食充足供应,科学引导粮食需求方向削弱粮食供求压力,共同改善中国粮食供求形势;(2)构建现代粮食市场体系,提升粮食市场运行效率,推进国家粮食产业化体系建设,提升粮食产业化水平,加强国家粮食宏观调控,逐步完善粮食安全保障机制,构建现代粮食流通产业;(3)不断提高农业科技创新能力,加快推进农业科技成果转化,大力加强农业人才队伍建设,构建农业科技创新信息服务体系,不断挖掘科技进步对粮食增产的贡献潜力,共同保障国家粮食安全可持续发展。本文将可持续发展理论引入到粮食安全的评价中,构建了基于可持续发展视角的中国粮食安全评价体系,对我国粮食安全的可持续发展状况进行了科学、深入、系统地评价;将索洛的增长速度方程法和E-S模型引入到粮食作物科技进步水平测算和科技进步模式分析中,分析了科技进步对粮食安全的影响作用;从粮食供需形势、粮食流通产业、农业科技进步以及粮食安全的可持续发展四个方面对粮食安全战略进行全面深入地研究,提出具有创新性的战略选择措施,这对于国家各级政府制定粮食安全相关政策方针具有重要的参考意义,具有实践和理论创新性。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a global issue, the concept of "Food security" has been given a lot of attention by the various international and regional economic conferences, since it was propounded by Food Security Committee of United Nations. The world’s food supply and demand have become acute imbalance, due to growth of the global population, deterioration of production factors, the change of the structural, climate variability, and various accidental factors, there are local food crisis frequently. The food security is seriously threatened. China, as a member of the world grain market, is impacted by the dramatic changes of international food prices. However, the domestic food supply pressure will continue to increase, in pace with the population growth and the raising level of consumption, as well as industrialization and urbanization progresses, so it has become a strategic issue that how to ensure the sustainable development of food security.This paper researched on Chinese food security in the perspective of sustainable development in a scientific and deep and systematic way. This paper discussed the some issues which include the situation of the food supply and demand and the food development of circulation industry, the advance of the agricultural science and technology and food security, using the experience of home and abroad for reference, based on the theory of sustainable development, the requirements of integrated application of industrial economics and technology economics, agricultural economics, resource economics and other scientific theories, as well as methods on food security, science and technology, sustainable development, the production factors, production function theory and related literature. According to the theory above, this paper analyzes the factor which affects relationship of supply and demand of food, and put forward safeguards of the Chinese food security in the perspective of sustainable development, which has important practical and theoretical significance.First, the related theory and literature have been reviewed in this paper, including theory of sustainable development, food security related research, scientific and the theoretical study of technological progress, factors of production theory and production functions. Base on those theoretical reviews, this paper argues that food security is based on the sustainable development of ecological. In order to meet the needs of the subsistence food, people should not only concern about the quality and quantity of food currently, but also focus on these five sustainable development systems of food production, agricultural economics, social support, resources, environment and agriculture technology. Also, the connotation of scientific and technological progress, models and source were reviewed. However, the factors of production theory, the classification of agricultural production factors and production functions were described in detail.By analyzing the situation of Chinese food production and demand, this paper discuss the factors deep, and forecast the trends of Chinese food production and demand, using the H-P filter analysis and regression analysis. After the review the change of Chinese circulation system, We Analyzed the current situation of Chinese grain market system,researched the composition of food market system and influencing factors.This paper defined the concept, processes and models of progress in agricultural science and technology, calculated the contribution rate of technological progress of crops using Solow’s growth rate equation, further, reckoned the input factors on the contribution rate of grain production, judged the model of Chinese food crops development in biochemical science and technology by ES model. It determined that making progress in the development of biochemical science and technology has important strategic significance. Scientific-technical progress has a fundamental role in increasing food production and ensuring national food security, with the marked restraining food production by natural resources, social environment.In this paper, the idea of sustainable development theory was taken into the evaluation of food security, building a safety evaluation system for Chinese food in the perspective of sustainable development, and evaluating the situation of Chinese food security sustainable development by collecting relevant statistical data. This paper argues that:(1) In the last fifteen years, the sustainable development of Chinese food security walked three stages of growth steadily, pace up and down, rapid development. The level of food security continues to improve.(2) In the perspective of sustainable development, promoting the sustainable development of national food security need to increase agricultural productivity, agricultural productivity of intermediate consumption, agricultural land productivity, and add the proportion of agricultural science and technology personnel and investment in agricultural science and technology, and promote agricultural scientific and technological progress, improving the contribution rate of agricultural science and technology. In the long run, the factors provided the challenges for protection national food security, such as population, resources, ecological. The most critical is to rely on agricultural science and technology innovation for solving Chinese food safety problems with the limited arable land and large population.(3) The sustainable development of Chinese food security will have considerable potential for improvement in the next period of time. It must be accelerated to promote agricultural science and technology, develope modern food distribution industry to improve the balance between grain supply and demand structures, and promote sustainable development of food security.In the end, the paper proposed measures to ensure the the national food security under sustainable development. (1) Rooting out the growth potential of food supply, guiding the direction of food supply and demand, and to.weaken the pressure; (2)Duilding a modern food distribution industry, including building a modern food market system, improve the efficiency of the grain market, and promote national food industry of the system, enhance the food industry, strengthen the national food macro-control, and gradually improve food security mechanism; (3)Increasing the innovation ability of agricultural science and technology, accelerating the transformation of agricultural science and technology, vigorously strengthen the qualified personnel of agricultural development, to protect the national food security under sustainable development.This article introduced the sustainable development theory to the evaluation of food security, built the assessment system for Chinese food security based on the sustainable development. We evaluated the sustainable development of Chinese food security in depth, systematic evaluation. The Solow growth rate equation method and ES model were introduced into estimates the level and model of food crops science and technology. We analysed the effect of technology progress on food security, researched the strategies for food security by the grain supply and demand situation, the grain distribution industry, agricultural science and technology progress, the sustainable development of food security, put forward strategic choice and innovative measures. These conclusions have important reference value and practical and theoretical innovation for all levels of governments to draft correlative strategic choice.更多还原