经济货币化的国际比较与中国经济货币化进程研究

【作者】 许忠；

【导师】 金芳；

【作者基本信息】 上海社会科学院 ， 世界经济， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 货币,作为一般等价物,自从诞生之日起,就意味着经济开始走向货币化之路。随着货币的逐步演进,货币从具有价值的实物货币变成了信用货币。而货币的发行也就逐步脱离了实物的羁绊,特别是1973年布雷顿森林体系崩溃,各国实行不兑现的纸币本位制后,信用货币的发行更加没有约束,货币供应量由货币当局决定。正是因为当前实行的这种信用货币制度,才使得对经济货币化的研究特别重要。一方面,在自然经济向货币经济转换的过程中需要多少货币,另一方面,货币当局是否为了攫取更多的铸币税和金融剩余而过多的发行了货币。从现实情况来看,近年来,全世界平均的货币化比率(M2/GDP)在持续上升,而中国的货币化比率则在改革开放之后迅速上升,2009年达到了181%,远高于西方发达国家水平。当然,这并不意味着中国的货币化水平比西方发达国家高,透过中国货币化比率畸高的表象,反而可能说明了中国经济内部存在着各式各样的深层次问题。那么究竟中国经济在货币化过程中表现出来的异常存在哪些问题,存在的这些问题又会给中国的经济改革带来什么风险。这正是本文希望能够找出答案所在。本文在对货币化及其相关概念、相关理论及度量的方式进行归纳总结之后,通过对货币化进程和特点进行对比分析,尤其是对中美日这三国的货币化情况进行对比分析的基础上,利用货币理论的部分分析框架,并通过实证研究,希望找出中国高货币化比率的原因,尤其希望找出人民币国际化对于我国货币化的影响。最后针对中国高货币化比率下的实质性因素,提出建议及观点。文章一共分为七章。第一章是导论,分析了本文的选题背景,对研究货币化的文献经行了归纳整理,并对本文的研究方法、研究思路和研究中存在的不足进行了介绍。第二章对货币化的概念、理论支撑及度量方法进行了梳理,为后面作进一步研究做好准备。第三章则对经济货币化这一现象的进程及特点进行了对比分析。第四章在前一章对比分析的基础上,找出影响中国货币化的因素及中国高货币化出现的原因。第五章是实证研究,通过对我国货币化的趋势及影响因素的实证分析,找到理论分析的实证依据。第六章是扩展分析,希望通过分析人民币国际化对我国货币化的影响,为以后的进一步分析打下基础。第七章则在前面分析的基础上分析我国的高货币化比率对我国经济的影响以及为了消除不利的影响,应该从哪些方面进行改进。对于我国出现的高货币化比率,除了根据货币供求理论,由于商品交易、财富储藏等方面的形成货币需求外,主要是制度方面存在着一些不完善导致我国货币化的畸高:一、金融体系不够完善我国金融市场的不发达表现在我国的金融工具品种单一、缺乏多样化;金融市场不够发达,金融结构仍然以银行为主,通过间接融资提供资金。由于金融工具过于单一,金融市场发展相对滞后,而且金融市场的规模还不能与银行同日而语,我国居民和企业的大部分金融资产只能以银行储蓄的形式存在,很少的部分流入股票、债券等金融市场,因此造成我国的准货币处于一个非常高的水平,从而导致M2也很高。二、我国特有的国有银行体系受到政府影响我国的银行体系是在四大国有商业银行的体系上建立的,因此政府因素在我国的国有银行体系中一直充当着特殊的角色。一方面,国有商业银行由于政府的授意将大量的贷款投入到低效率的国有企业,造成不良贷款比例不断上升。在这种情况下,为了给经济运行提供宽松的货币环境,保证经济的持续增长,又必须不断提供新的信贷,导致M2的膨胀,并自然表现为高的货币化比率。另一方面,为了获得信贷所需的资金,中国政府通过对银行体系的“显性补贴”和“隐性担保”,吸引了大量的储蓄,并且借助内部货币的扩张在制度转轨过程中获得大量的金融剩余,当然这也导致了我国较高的货币化比率。当然,由于我国市场的低效率,我国的大量储蓄资金存在向投资转化的困境,储蓄投资转化率很低,大量的储蓄“沉淀”在银行体系,未流向流通领域形成通货膨胀。而随着货币化比率的提高,实现一定数量的国内生产总值所需要的货币量也在逐步增加。三、收入差距不断拉大和社会保障体系缺位我国渐进式改革的主要方向是“允许一部分人先富起来”,这种“效率优先”的战略在改革开放之初对于我国经济发展、促进经济活力起了极其重要的作用。但随着改革的深入,以效率优先、兼顾公平的发展战略开始显露其不良影响,我国贫富差距开始不断拉大(根据世界银行的报告2007年的基尼系数已经达到0.48),城乡差距、地区差距、行业差距都有了不同程度的拉大,而同时我国的社会保障制度在覆盖性及保障程度方面都远远没有得到完善,这直接导致居民的收入“只存不敢花”,造成我国准货币存量不断攀升。四、货币的内生性国际收支顺差形成的外汇储备近年来不断增加,2009年我国的外汇储备达到2.4万亿美元。由于我国实行结汇制度,外汇占款造成的基础货币也不断增加,而且从2000年开始,外汇占款占基础货币的比重开始不断增加。2002年以后,人民币升值压力不断显现,为了降低人民币汇率的波动,央行进入外汇市场进行外汇买卖,使得我国外汇储备不断增加。2005年汇改以后,外汇占款形式形成的基础货币成为我国基础货币投放的最主要形式,央行每年都不得不通过大量收回对金融机构的再贷款、公开市场操作、提高法定准备金率、发行央行票据等对冲措施,回收因外汇占款形成的基础货币。2009年外汇占款投放的基础货币占到134.10%,央行通过公开市场操作仍不能对冲外汇占款形成的基础货币。因此,货币内生性也是我国高货币化比率的一个原因。由于以上各种因素的作用,造成我国的货币化比率较高,而又未出现通货膨胀,也就是“中国之谜”。尽管我国未出现恶性通货膨胀,但是高货币化所形成的大量储蓄有时候也会有追逐收益的需求,资本市场是一个的理想的目标。因此,我国的资本市场习惯性地经历了多次暴涨暴跌。幸亏我国的资本市场目前在整个金融体系中所占的地位还比较次要,对经济造成的冲击还不足以影响全局,才没有形成全面的危机。但是这也意味着我国在经济体制改革过程中还有很多方面需要完善,以促进我国的货币化从“量变”向“质变”转化,从货币广化向货币深化转变,并最终向经济金融化得方向推进。更多还原

【Abstract】 The economy began to going monetization since the currency borne to work as a general equivalent. With the gradual evolution of the currency, it experienced a change from commodity money, which had a real value, to credit money. Since then, the issuing of money broke away from the commodity, and especially after the collapse of the Bretton Woods System in 1973,that the non-convertible Paper Money Standard accepted by almost all the countries, the issuing of money was unbinding and the money supply determined by the monetary authorities.It’s just because of the current credit monetary system which makes it especially important to research the economy monetization rate in our country. For one thing, how much money is necessary to ensure the natural economy successfully converted to money economy. For another, whether the monetary authorities issued excessive money for more seigniorage income and financial surplus.From a practical point of view, in recent years, the average monetization rate (M2/GDP) of the world is rising continuously, while the monetization rate of China rose rapidly after the economic Reform and Opening up. China’s monetization rate reached 181% in 2009,which is far higher than all the western countries. Of course, it didn’t mean that China had a higher level monetization than western countries. After the exceptionally high monetization rate, there may exist a lot of deep-seated problems within China’s economy development. So what are the problems and what risk will the problems bring to China’s economic reform. That‘s the purposes I wrote this paper.This paper based on the summarization of the monetization rate and its related concepts, theories and the measurement of monetization, then compared China’s monetization process with other areas, especially compared China’s monetization process with the USA and Japan. By taking use of the monetary theory analytical frame work and an empirical study, I meant to find out what influences will the Internationalization of Renminbi will take to China’s monetization. At last, this paper hopes to give some useful advice after the discussing.The paper concluded 7 parts. Chapter one is an introduction which introduced the paper’s research background and summarized the existent research of other economists. In chapter one I also introduced the research method, research ideas, the insufficient of this paper. Chapter two coordinate the concept of monetization related theories and measurement, prepared for the further research. Chapter three analyzed the process and characteristics of the economy monetization with comparison. Chapter four based on the comparison in previous chapter and tried to find out the reasons for China’s high monetization rate. Chapter five is the empirical research about China’s monetization trend and reasons, which tried to find out the empirical basis of the theoretical analysis. Chapter six is an expanded analysis, I hope to find out what influence will the Internationalization of Renminbi bring to China’s monetization, and prepared for the further research. Chapter seven analyzed the influences if China’s monetization rate and gave out some advices based on previous analysis.To think of the reason for China’s high monetization rate, except for the money demanding on trading, storing, etc according to the Currency Supply and Demand Theory, it appeared mainly because there exists some defects in China’s economy system.First, the financial system is needed to be mature.The immature of China’s financial market performed in China’s financial instruments which are lack of diversification and the underdeveloped financial market. Banks are still the mainly institutions for financing and the indirect financing is still the main way to get money. Because of the single financial instruments and the underdeveloped financial market, most of the financial asserts in China exists in the forms of bank savings. Only a small amount of the assets are stocks and bonds. That’s why the quasi-money is at a high level in China, which resulting in a high M2 in China.Second, China’s unique state-owned banking system is affected by the government.China’s banking system established on the base of four state-owned commercial banks. So the government plays a special role in the banking system. For one thing, as the instruction of the government, the state-owned banks put a large number of loans into the inefficiency state-owned enterprises, increasing the proportion of bad loans. In this case, to keep the economic growth, the banks had to provide new loans, which lead to the expansion of M2 and naturally a high monetization rate. For another, the government needs to attract a lot of savings through“explicit subsidies”and“implicit guarantee”, which leads to a lot of financial surplus in the economic transition process. That’s another reason for the high rate. Of course, due to the low efficiency of China’s market, China’s large savings have a trouble in converting into investments, the lower conversion rate result in that a lot of savings stay in the banking system instead of bringing the inflation. With the increasing monetization rate, to achieve a certain amount of economic growth, it needs more money supply.Third, Wealth gap between rich and poor is lager and the social security system is lost.China’s gradual reform, which allowed some people get rich first, is a”efficiency first”strategy. This strategy played an extremely important role in the beginning of China’s Reform and Opening up. But, with the deepening of the Reform, the strategy began to show its negative impact. The wealth gap of China began to be bigger. According to the Reports of the World Bank, the Gini coefficient of China had been reached 0.48 in 2007.The urban-rural gap, regional gap, industry gap had widened in different degrees, which China’s social security system is far from being perfect in the degree of coverage and protection, which leads to high quasi-money in our country.Fourth, there exists endogenous money supply in China.The foreign exchange reserves increased in recent years because of the international balance of payment surplus. China’s foreign exchange reserves reached 2.4 trillion in 2009.Because of China’s system of exchange, the base money supply caused by the RMB counterpart of foreign exchange reserves increased a lot. Since 2000, the rate of the RMB counterpart of foreign exchange reserves in base money supply is bigger. After 2002, the pressure of RMB appreciation has grown increasingly apparent, in order to reduce exchange rate volatility, central bank entered foreign exchange market for transition, making China’s foreign exchange reserves continue to increase. After the foreign exchange Reform in 2005, the rate of the RMB counterpart of foreign exchange reserves became the main form of base money in China, the central bank had to retrieve the base money caused by the RMB counterpart of foreign exchange reserves through retrieving a lot of re-lending to financial institutes, open-market operation, raising legal reserve rate, issuing central bank bills and other hedging measures. In 2009, the base money caused by the RMB counterpart of foreign exchange reserves reached 134.10% and the central bank can’t hedge the base money caused by the RMB counterpart of foreign exchange reserves. So the endogenous money supply is also one of the reasons for China’s high monetization rate. Because of all the factors mentioned above, China’s monetization rate is much highly without inflation, which is called“the mystery of China”. Although China is not hyperinflation, but sometimes the big amounts of savings caused by high monetization rate had a demand for chasing high benefits and the capital market is an ideal target. Therefore, China’s capital market experienced a number of customary rocketing and plumping. Luckily, China’s capital market is in a low level position of the entire financial system, so the rocketing and plumping of the capital market played a small impact on the economy. But it means there are still many aspects need to be improved in the course of economic system reform, so our country’s monetization can covert from“quantity”to“quality”, from money spreading to money deepening and lastly advance to the economy financing.更多还原