【作者】 宁宝坤；

【导师】 曲国胜；

【作者基本信息】 中国地震局地质研究所 ， 构造地质学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 地震灾害是我国自然灾害的众灾之首,对震后灾情时空分布的快速认识以及紧急应对的研究具有重要的理论和实践意义,也是目前灾害应对领域与政府工作的热点。地震灾害研究是一门交叉综合学科,涉及构造地质学、社会学、灾害学、公共管理和危机管理等众多领域,必须在多学科综合的框架下,研究“地震—地震灾害—地震灾害应对”这个链条上的各个环节。但目前地震灾害时空分布研究的尺度对一次特定地震紧急处置的应用价值有限；构造地质学研究地震发生发展规律,偏重于地震灾害的自然属性,而在震后应急救援中的应用研究比较薄弱；地震紧急救援的指挥布局等也未进行详细分析,缺少可借鉴的理论依据和模式。本文以地震灾害应对为导向,在一次地震灾害应对的时空框架内,开展地震灾害的时空分析和应急救援响应研究。在空间上,以龙门山前陆构造带与汶川特大地震灾害的空间分布关系分析为例,开展现今构造形态和地理环境下的地震灾害空间分布特征研究,利用地理信息系统的空间分析、叠加分析等技术,获取地震巨灾空间分布的规律性,并建立了基于大型逆冲推覆构造带分区的灾情区划概念模型；在空间分布规律和灾情分布的基础上,提出几种主要的地震灾害救援空间模式；在时间上,以多个国内外强震震后灾情时间变化过程分析为基础,通过统计分析获取地震巨灾几种主要灾害指标随时间变化的规律性。通过上述研究,论文主要获得了以下认识与结论：(一)灾害应对中的地震灾害时空分布认识在一次特定地震灾害应对时空框架内,地质构造的现今格局是地震灾害空间分布的主要制约因素之一,地震前后构造变化对灾害空间分布的影响可以忽略不计；由于地震原生灾害致灾时间远远小于灾情被认知的时间过程,地震灾害时间分布受人类认知的水平和特点影响明显,即地震灾害获取的能力和水平。因此,针对某个地震灾害的时空分布研究,应从两方面入手：从现今地质构造来研究地震巨灾的空间分布；从灾情被人类认知的过程来研究地震灾害的时间分布。(二)地震巨灾空间分布的认识1、根据龙门山构造带逆冲方向的分段性和走向上的分段性,划分了9个龙门山逆冲推覆构造带构造亚区；通过对汶川地震地表破裂带、滑坡崩塌、堰塞湖、水利水电工程、余震以及指示综合灾情的地震烈度等震害指标的分析表明,后山带中段是汶川地震灾情最严重的区域,后山带北段和前山带中段较重,前山带北段灾情中等,其他各构造亚区灾情分布较弱。2、建立了基于推覆构造带分区的灾情空间分布概念模型。控制推覆方向分带性的逆冲断裂(与逆冲方向垂直)是地震巨灾灾情分布的一级影响因素；大型或巨大型推覆构造带内,与逆冲断裂垂直的捩断裂对能量的调节作用,是地震巨灾灾情分布的二级影响因素；在一二级影响因素内,巨灾灾情还受较大尺度的具体场地和局部环境影响,如后山带内的刚性块体彭灌杂岩体对该亚区内的滑坡分布、映秀Ⅺ度形状等控制明显都有不同程度的影响。(三)地震专业救援空间分布的认识1、在汶川地震专业救援力量震后前3天的系列时空分布图上,明显看出震后救助力量(尤其是外来救助力量)从南向北迁移的趋势,反映出震后灾情在空间上的认识从震中向北东延伸的过程；通过对专业救援队跨区域作战行进路线的分析,结合推覆构造带地形地貌特征和汶川地震灾情空间分布研究成果,建立了汶川地震专业救援指挥调度的3级管理模式以及“单侧多路梳状”的救援空间形态；并进一步建立跨区域地震巨灾救援管理的宏观指挥框架和6种救援格局的空间形态,以及在该形态下的救援行进路线。2、从救援队属地、灾情信息来源、震后离逝时间与埋压情况等多种角度,分析了汶川地震救援成果。结果表明：即使遭受巨灾重创,地方救援队作为震后最早到达现场的专业人员,仍是进行浅表层埋压者救援的重要力量；有效的信息发布渠道是保证各个救援环节流畅、高效地运转的重要条件；人员埋压越深救援效果越差,需要具有重型装备和配置的专业救援队。(四)地震灾情时间分布的认识1、震后灾情信息总量表现为从零增加直至饱和的总体趋势,即体现为累积增加的性质；信息增量从零先增加到最大值,随后减少为零,增量达到最大值的时间小于总量信息趋于饱和的时间；从数学概念上,增量的时间变化函数就是总量时间变化函数的导数。2、震后人员死亡的时间曲线变化速度是非均一的,在震后初期有一个快速增长的过程,越趋近于饱和则变化的速度越慢。在论文选取的10个震例中,4个死亡总数超过万人的震例,其人员死亡统计的绝对数均在震后第二天首次超过1万人；在其余6个死亡总数在万人以下的震例中,其人员死亡统计的绝对数在第二天达到死亡总数的一半,绝大多数超过八成。在当前人类的灾情获取能力下,震后初期信息(48小时,甚至24小时内)对灾情规模的判定具有较大的贡献率。目前人类在人员死亡获取的效率是比较高的,在震后利用实时的人员死亡统计数进行灾害规模的估计也是可行的。3、在6个人员死亡超过5000人的震例中,人员死亡时增量K通常从震后7小时开始迅速增加,初次报道的人员死亡超过1000人的时间多数位于8—12小时之间。对于人员死亡规模在1000人左右的地震,初次报道的人员死亡总数超过100人的时间多数也在这个时段内,但窗口会向震后时间缩短的方向滑移。对于重大规模的地震灾害,震后24小时内,尤其是震后8—16小时报道的灾情是灾害规模判定的重要信息窗口。通常人员死亡时增量最大取值的时间也分布在这个时间段内,对要尽快做出决策的地震应急救援行动也具有重要的实用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 As earthquake disaster is one of the most severe natural disasters in China, the rapid analysis of spatio-temporal distribution of disasters and the studies on follow-up emergency responses have important theoretical and practical significance, which are the current focused issue of disaster management studies and arise general interests of governments at different levels as well.Since it is a comprehensive multidisciplinary research, involving structural geology, sociology, disaster management, public administration, crisis management and many other research fields, earthquake disaster studies must investigate the various aspects of the sequence chain of "earthquake-earthquake disaster-disaster response" within a multidisciplinary framework. However, the present studies have some shortages. For example, the scale of spatio-temporal distribution of earthquake disaster studies has limited application values on a particular emergency response event; structural geology focuses on the occurrence and evolution patterns of earthquakes, and emphasizes the natural properties of the disasters while is relatively weak in the study on its application to the post-earthquake relief mission. Furthermore, there is no detailed study on commanding management in the disaster relief mission and lack of theoretical basis and models for reference. These are worth in-depth studies.Oriented from the response to earthquake disasters, this thesis analyzes the spatio-temporal distribution of disasters and studies the following emergency response and rescue mission within the temporal and spatial framework of a specific earthquake. In space, taking the links between the foreland structural belt of the Longmen Shan Mountain and the disaster spatial distribution of the Wenchuan earhquake in 2008 as a case study, the paper studies the current structural patterns and features of disasters spatial distribution in the geographical environment by using the GIS spatial analysis, overlay analysis methods and the likes, in order to acquire the regularity of spatial distribution of earthquake disasters, and to establish a conceptual model of disaster damage based on the large-scale thrust nappe structure belt zone, thus to propose several major spatial modes of earthquake disaster rescue. In time, on the basis of the analysis on time successions of disaster situations after several major earthquakes, the paper selects death and injuered as index, by applying the statistical analysis, obtains the developing regularity of several major disaster indexes with time. Through this research, the thesis concludes the following results:(A) Spatio-temporal distribution of earthquake disasters in the disaster responseIn a specific earthquake response within the temporal and spatial framework, the current pattern of geological structure is the main constraints an earthquake disaster spatial distribution. The influences of structural changes before and after earthquakes on the disasters spatial distribution can be neglected. As the time of primary earthquake disaster is short, the major constrains on the disaster time distribution are the cognitive level and characteristic of the human beings, i.e., the social acquirement ability and level of earthquake disasters. Therefore, for the study on temporal and spatial distribution of earthquake disasters, this work will focus on the following two aspects:ⅰ) studying the spatial distribution of earthquake disasters from current geological structures;ⅱ) studying the time distribution of earthquake disaster damage from people’s cognitive process on the disaster situation.(B) Spatial distribution of earthquake disaster1, According to the segmentation of in thrust and strike of the Longmen Shan mountain structural belt, the paper divides the Longmen Shan Mountain thrust structural belt into nine sub-regions. The comparison of different damage indexes of the Wenchuan Earthquake, such as, earthquake surface rupture zones, landslide collapses, damaged lakes, water conservancies and hydropower plants, aftershocks and seismic intensity which indicates the comprehensive disaster damages and so on, shows that the middle section of the Houshan belt is the worst damage area, the northern section of the Houshan Belt and middle section of the Qianshan belt are heavier damage ones, the northern part of the Qianshan Belt is moderately damaged, and the other sub-regions are slightly damaged.2, Establish the damage conceptual models based on zonation of the nappe structural beltThe thrust fault (normal to the direction of thrust) which controls zonation in the nappe direction is the first class influence factor of earthquake disaster damage distribution. And, in the large or giant nappe structure zone and perpendicular to the thrust fault, the tear fault which regulates the energy is the second class influence factor. Among these two influence factors, the catastrophic damages are still impacted by large scale specific sites and local environment. For example, the distribution of slides in the sub-zones and the XI degree formation in Yingxiu County are more or less obviously affected by the rigid blocks of the western Yangtze block in the Houshan belt. (C) Spatial distribution of professional rescue forces1. The first 3-day series of temporal and spatial distribution of the professional earthquake rescue forces after the earthquake reflecting the obvious movements from south to north of rescue forces (especially the external rescue forces) shows that the understanding of the damages in space is processing from the epicenter to the northeast. By analysis of the marching routes of cross-region professional teams and integrating the features of nappe structural terrain and the studies of spatial distribution of the Wenchuan earthquake damage, the thesis constructs a 3-category commanding management mode and the comb-shape spatial distribution form of rescue forces, then further develops an inter-regional earthquake catastrophic relief management framework and six spatial forms of rescue forces, and the rescue routes in different forms.2, The thesis analyzes the results of the Wenchuan earthquake rescue mission from different views ranging from the places where the rescue teams came from, the sources of disaster information, the elapsed time after the earthquake and the buried situation of victims. The analysis shows that even if the area suffered a lot, as the first professional forces who arrived the affected area, the provincial rescue teams were the major forces in rescuing the shallow buried survivors; and the effective information dissemination channel was a critical condition for a smooth and efficient operation; and the deeper the survivors were buried, the worser the rescue effects. More professional rescue teams with heavy equipments were needed.(D) Study of temporal distribution of disaster damages1, the overall trend of total earthquake disaster information is from zero up to saturation, reflecting the cumulative nature. Information increase is from zero to the maximum value then decreasing to zero. The incremental time to reach the maximum value is less than the saturation time of total information. From the mathematical concept, the time variation function of incremental is the derivative of that of total information.2. The change rate of the time curve of the deaths after the earthquake is non-homogeneous. In the initial period after the earthquake, there is a rapid growth process, the closer to the saturation the slower the time changes.The thesis selects 10 earthquake cases,4 of which are with more than 10,000 deaths. And the absolute numbers of deaths are all beyond 10,000 in the second day after the earthquake. In the other 6 cases with the death toll below 10,000, the absolute number of deaths in the second day is half of the total death toll. Most of them are over 80%. Due to the limits of the current acquisition technology, the information early obtained within 48 hours, or even within 24 hours, contributes a lot in determining the scales of the disaster. Currently, the efficiency in obtaining the death toll is relatively high, and using the real-time statistics of death toll after an earthquake to estimate the scale of disaster is also feasible.3, The death-time statistic is selected as the index and hour-increasing death index (K) is defined. In the 6 cases with more than 5,000 deaths, the increment K usually increases rapidly in 7 hours after the occurrence of earthquakes. The time of firstly reported the overall death numbers over 1,000 is mostly between 8-12 hours. To those earthquakes with about 1,000 death numbers, the time of firstly reported death toll over 100 mostly is within the same time span, but the time window tends to be less than 7 hours. To the major scale earthquake disaster, the information of disaster within 24 hours after the earthquake, especially the 8-16 hours is most important for determination of the disaster scales. Usually, the maximum K is within this time window which is valuable for the decision-making for earthquake emergency and relief mission.更多还原