【作者】 陈裕佳；

【导师】 蒋承林；

【作者基本信息】 中国矿业大学 ， 安全技术及工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 煤与瓦斯突出是严重影响煤矿安全生产的自然灾害之一,在各种类型的突出中,石门揭煤由于其特殊的瓦斯存储条件,导致其发生突出的平均强度最大,破坏性极高,突出一旦发生,就将给矿井带来巨大的灾难。因此,石门揭煤工作面也是煤与瓦斯突出预测的重点。我国自上世纪70年代就开始对石门揭煤的突出危险性预测进行了研究,并提出了许多方法。但是面对众多的突出预测方法中给出的预测指标,到底哪一个才是突出敏感指标?其临界值如何确定?这些问题都是现场工作中感觉比较棘手的。为此,本文通过理论分析、模拟计算以及实验室的模拟试验等方法,对石门揭煤突出危险性预测方法进行了全面、深入的研究,为现场石门揭煤确定了一套最科学的突出危险性预测方法。通过分析预测科学的一般规律,据此提出了对预测方法进行评定的标准。以这个标准为基础,确定了对石门揭煤突出危险性预测方法进行研究的步骤:首先,对各预测方法进行理论分析,研究了各种突出预测方法在理论上的合理性;然后,对各预测指标的测量不确定度进行评定,研究各预测指标测试结果的稳定性;最后,通过对各指标进行科学检验,研究其预测的准确性。由于在现场对突出危险性预测方法进行科学检验非常困难,本文通过实验室的突出模拟试验来模拟现场石门揭煤的突出,以此为基础对各预测方法进行科学检验。并从煤与瓦斯突出的物理条件和力学条件两个方面对突出模拟试验与现场的相似性进行了研究,提出了相似性试验设计方案。根据石门揭煤突出危险性预测方法的特征,本文对其进行了分类,其中初始释放瓦斯膨胀能指标和解吸指标属于综合指标,而D、K指标则是一种组合指标。通过对各指标进行理论分析得到的结果表明:初始释放瓦斯膨胀能指标能够综合反映影响煤与瓦斯突出的各个主要因素,反映了煤与瓦斯突出的本质,具有理论上的合理性。在对各石门揭煤突出危险性预测指标测定的过程中,我们对测量不确定度的来源进行了分析,分别建立了评定各突出预测指标测量结果不确定度的数学模型,对各预测指标的测定结果进行了测量不确定度评定。并针对测量不确定度较大的指标编制了不确定度分量表,针对其不确定度的主要来源,提出了改进意见。基于Fisher准则,对各预测指标进行了判别分析,得出了各突出预测指标的判别方程和临界值,将各预测指标的预测结果进行回判,结果表明:目前现场使用的各种石门揭煤突出危险性预测方法中,初始释放瓦斯膨胀能指标的回判的准确率最高,达到了97.8%;其它各种方法的预测准确率分别为K 1指标84.8%,? h 2指标71.7%,D、K指标82.6%。通过部分石门及井筒揭煤的实践,对本论文所得到的研究结果进行了现场验证。验证结果表明,使用初始释放瓦斯膨胀能指标不仅能够准确预测实验室突出模拟试验的结果,对于预测现场石门及井筒揭煤的突出危险性,同样具有较高的准确性。与本论文的研究结果是向符合的。为现场对石门揭煤突出危险性进行预测提供了重要的手段。该论文有图45幅,表32个,参考文献111篇。更多还原

【Abstract】 Through theoretical analysis and simulation calculation as well as laboratory simulation tests and other means, this paper has studied the outburst of cross-cut uncovering coal fatalness prediction methods comprehensively and deeply, and identified a set of the most scientific way.This paper has analysis the general laws of the predictive science, and then proposed the standard to assess the forecasting methods. On the basis of this standard, the steps of this study are as follows: First, conducting theoretical analysis of the various forecasting methods; and then assessing the uncertainty of the measurement outcome of the various predictors; finally, scientifically verifying the various indexes.Aiming at the difficulties in the on-site scientific examination of outburst fatalness prediction methods, we have put forward using laboratory outburst simulation test to simulate the on-site cross-cut uncovering coal, and on this basis to conduct scientific test to various prediction methods. And from coal and gas outburst conditions and physical conditions, we have conducted a study about the similarity between outburst simulation test and spot test, and put forward a similar test design project.According to the characteristics to classify the various prediction methods, in which the expansion energy of initial released gas of coal and Methane desorption indexes belong to comprehensive index, while the D, K index can only be regarded as a combination of indexes. On this basis to theoretically analyze the various indexes.Analyzing the source of the uncertainty of measurement in the process of measuring the cross-cut uncovering outburst fatalness prediction indexes, we have separately established the mathematical model of assessing the uncertainty of measurement, and on the basis evaluated the measurement results of various indexes. And according to the larger uncertainty for the measurement of indexes, we have worked out the sub-scales of uncertainty, and for its main source, we have proposed improvement suggestions.On Fisher criteria conducting discriminate analysis to the measurement results of various indexes, we have obtained discriminate equation and the corresponding critical value by using various indexes to predict the fatalness of outburst, and then comparing to the results of outburst simulation test conducted sub-return discriminate analysis to the various indexes.Several cross-cut and shaft uncovering coal has test on-site the research results of the paper. And the result shows that using the initial release of the gas expansion energy indexes, not only are predicted accurately the result of laboratory outburst simulation test, but also cross-cut and shaft uncovering coal outburst fatalness on-site.The paper has 45 drawn Pictures, 32 Tables, and 111 References.更多还原