【作者】 李贤功；

【导师】 宋学锋；

【作者基本信息】 中国矿业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 煤矿生产系统是一个复杂的社会技术系统,其中关于煤矿重大瓦斯事故的致因机理也具有复杂性。本文针对煤矿系统事故的致因因素的属性、因素之间的关联以及系统的结构及演化,通过研究煤矿系统内重大瓦斯事故致因因素以及煤矿子系统之间的脆性关联性、反馈动态性、非线性的因果关系来寻找煤矿重大瓦斯事故的管理控制途径。本文在对我国煤矿事故尤其是煤矿重大瓦斯事故的基本情况进行统计分析的基础上,指出我国煤矿重大瓦斯事故的特征及主要原因。通过对煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故的过程及后果的分析,为后文的进一步研究奠定了基础。本文认为,煤矿这一社会技术系统的要素众多、功能复杂,多输入多输出等特征带来了事故致因的复杂性。在分析煤矿这一复杂社会技术系统的基础之上,运用系统层次全息模型分析方法建立煤矿系统等级全息模型来描述煤矿系统的要素及要素之间的关系,为之后的分析和建模确定研究对象和基础。本文将煤矿系统看作一个典型的脆性复杂系统。在运用数学语言对煤矿系统脆性定义的基础上,明确了系统的脆性源和脆性接受者,指出煤矿系统脆性的结构,系统脆性被激发导致系统崩溃的过程。借助脆性风险熵作为衡量系统脆性大小的标准,本文实证测算了煤矿系统人员、机器设备、环境和管理四个子系统的脆性关联度和脆性熵,分析了子系统的同一熵、波动熵、对立熵在事故脆性致因中的影响作用。动态反馈及延迟是煤矿事故系统致因复杂性产生的主要原因。本文通过运用基于反馈动态复杂性的系统分析方法,借助系统动力学工具Vensim构建了包括煤矿生产、人力资源、安全子系统在内的煤矿耦合系统仿真模型,实证分析了包括人员、煤炭产量、机器设备、环境、组织文化因素在内的导致事故发生的直接原因和间接原因的动态变化规律,揭示煤矿重大瓦斯事故发生的机理。通过对仿真模型在不同情境条件下的模拟以及致因因素的敏感性分析,研究了煤矿重大瓦斯事故致因过程中因素的变化规律及因素之间的相互影响关系,从中得到了控制煤矿系统重大瓦斯事故的途径和管理措施。根据上述对煤矿这一复杂系统分析仿真的结果,从基于复杂系统脆性理论和系统反馈动态复杂性的管理视角指出通过控制和管理我国煤矿重大瓦斯事故的方法与措施,具体包括控制和消除系统要素之间的脆性关联,加强技术和管理防御以降低煤矿重大瓦斯事故的脆性风险,通过保持高度的一贯的安全管理承诺,提高个人的安全承诺来减少人员的不安全行为,通过采用隐患闭环准时管理来加强对隐患的治理等。该论文共有图77幅,表12个,参考文献155篇。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a complex socio-technical system, the accident causes in the coal mine system come with even more complexity. By analyzing the causing factors attributes and the relationships, system structure and evolution to find the complex causing mechanism, the brittleness connections, feedback and dynamic complexity of the coal mine significant accidents are studied in this research. Finally, the methods and measures to control and management the accidents in coal mine are proposed for China coal mines.On the basis of statistical analysis of China coal mines’accidents history and structure, the characteristics and significant causes of accidents are put forward, especially for the significant coal mine gas accident which the occurrence mechanism is analyzed. It is pointed out the huge, multi functional and multi input and output socio technical system that brings complexity to accidents causing. With Hierarchal Holographic Modeling (HHM) method, the coal mine accident causing hierarchal holographic model is depicted for the following research.The coal mine safety system is a typical brittle or vulnerable system. By define the brittleness source and system structure, the fault tree is used to identify the causing factors in coal mine gas accident analysis. The system brittleness connection entropy is calculated from human related subsystem, machine related subsystem, environment related subsystem and management related subsystem with questionnaire survey data. Then the gas accident brittleness causing process is constructed and the mechanism is studied from micro perspective.In the system dynamic perspective, the feedback and time delay are the main reasons which bring complexity into the coal mine gas accident. With system dynamics theory and modeling tool, a simulation model which contains mine capacity subsystem, coal production subsystem, human resource subsystem and safety subsystem is constructed by Vensim, the system dynamics modeling tool. In the simulation model, the human related, equipment related, environment related and cultural factors in the accidents causing process are analyzed to find the coal mine significant gas accident mechanism. With simulation in different scenarios and sensitivity analysis, the variation of causing factors and the influential relations are studied to seek the control approaches and management measures to the accidents of coal mine system.On the basis of the studies upon, methods and measures to control the significant gas accidents and safety management suggestions are given for China coal mine administration from complex brittle theory and dynamic feedback complexity, which includes to control or cancel the brittle connection, strengthen technology and management defenses to reduce the coal mine significant gas accidents, to reduce human unsafe behavior by enhance safety management commitment personnel commitment and to management hidden danger by close and in time management.There are 77 figures, 12 tables and 155 references in the thesis.更多还原