【作者】 杨贵中；

【导师】 白云升；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 产业经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 本文以中国1981、1987、1992、1997、2002和2007年的投入产出数据为基础,编制这6年的非竞争型投入产出表,运用非竞争型投入产出模型研究各种需求因素对中国三次产业增长的影响。本文运用分配系数研究三次产业的中间需求结构和最终需求结构；在考虑产业完全关联作用的情况下,运用拉动系数研究三次产业的最终需求结构。通过与美国、日本和德国三次产业的市场需求结构进行比较,判断中国三次产业市场需求结构的可能变化趋势。本文还运用需求波动弹性测度市场需求波动对产业影响的大小。在回顾投入产出结构分解法的基础上,选择了蒙哥马利分解法作为定量研究需求因素对三次产业增长影响的研究方法。本文得出以下基本结论：(1)分配系数反映了产业的市场需求结构,也反映了各种需求因素对产业的直接拉动作用。1981-2007年,中国三次产业的市场需求结构发生较大变化。中国第一产业、第二产业的中间需求率增加而最终需求率下降。2007年,中国第一产业中间需求率以较大幅度超过第一产业的最终需求率,表明中间需求对第一产业的直接拉动作用超过最终需求对第一产业的直接拉动作用；中国第二产业中间需求率也以较大幅度超过第二产业的最终需求率,表明中间需求对第二产业的直接拉动作用超过最终需求对第二产业的直接拉动作用。与第一产业、第二产业不同,中国第三产业的中间需求率与最终需求率虽然出现波动,但变化幅度相对较小。2007年,中国第三产业的中间需求率与最终需求率均接近0.5,表明中间需求和最终需求对第三产业的直接拉动作用基本持平。三次产业的细分产业表现出不同的需求结构,表明各种需求因素对不同产业的影响有差异；这要求针对不同的产业,制定不同的扩大需求的对策。在中国、美国、日本和德国4国中,2005年中国的经济总量最小,但中国第一产业的中间需求率和最终需求率处于中间位置,因此难以判断2005年以后中国第一产业中间需求率和最终需求率的走势。在中国、美国、日本和德国4国中,中国第二产业的中间需求率最高而最终需求率最低,中国第二产业的中间需求率可能下降而最终需求率可能上升。在中国、美国、日本和德国4国中,中国第三产业的中间需求率最高而最终需求率最低,中国第三产业的中间需求率可能下降而最终需求率可能上升。(2)拉动系数考虑了产业间的完全关联作用,反映了最终需求对三次产业完全拉动作用的大小。在“三驾马车”中,消费需求对中国第一产业的拉动系数高于资本形成需求对中国第一产业的拉动系数,后者高于出口需求对中国第一产业的拉动系数。消费需求对中国第一产业的拉动系数呈下降走势；资本形成需求、出口需求对中国第一产业的拉动系数呈上升走势。比较2005年“三驾马车”对中国、美国、日本和德国第一产业的拉动系数可知,消费需求、资本形成需求和出口需求对中国第一产业的拉动系数均处于居中的位置,难以判断2005年以后消费需求、资本形成需求和出口需求对中国第一产业拉动系数的变化趋势。(3)在“三驾马车”中,1981年消费需求对中国第二产业的拉动系数最高,但1981-2007年持续下降,2007年消费需求对中国第二产业的拉动系数在“三驾马车”对中国第二产业的拉动系数中最低。1981年资本形成需求对中国第二产业的拉动系数在“三驾马车”对中国第二产业的拉动系数中居中,1981-2007年经历了小幅波动,2007年资本形成需求对中国第二产业的拉动系数在“三驾马车”对中国第二产业的拉动系数中最高。1981年出口需求对中国第二产业的拉动系数在“三驾马车”对中国第二产业的拉动系数中最低,但1981-2007年呈上升走势,2007年出口需求对中国第二产业的拉动系数在“三驾马车”对中国第二产业的拉动系数中居中。比较2005年中国、美国、日本和德国“三驾马车”对第二产业的拉动系数可知,消费需求对中国第二产业的拉动系数最低,资本形成需求对中国第二产业的拉动系数最高,而出口需求对中国第二产业的拉动系数居中。消费需求对中国第二产业的拉动系数可能上升,资本形成需求对中国第二产业的拉动系数可能下降,但出口需求对中国第二产业拉动系数的变化趋势难以判断。(4)在“三驾马车”中,消费需求对中国第三产业的拉动系数最高,但1981-2007年持续下降。1981年资本形成需求对中国第三产业的拉动系数高于出口需求对中国第三产业的拉动系数,1981-2007年,资本形成需求对中国第三产业的拉动系数小幅波动,但出口需求对中国第三产业的拉动系数持续上升,2007年资本形成需求对中国第三产业的拉动系数低于出口需求对中国第三产业的拉动系数。比较2005年“三驾马车”对中国、美国、日本和德国第三产业的拉动系数可知,消费需求对中国第三产业的拉动系数最低,但资本形成需求和出口需求对中国第三产业的拉动系数最高。消费需求对中国第三产业的拉动系数可能上升,而资本形成需求和出口需求对第三产业的拉动系数可能下降。(5)市场需求、增加值率、价格的变动都会影响三次产业的增长,其中市场需求因素对三次产业增长的影响占主导作用。中国第一产业的增长主要得益于第一产业中间需求的增加,尤其是第二产业对第一产业中间需求的增加；而第一产业最终需求增加对第一产业增长的直接拉动作用相对较小。第二产业的快速增长得益于第二产业的中间需求和最终需求都大幅度增加,尤其是中间需求增加的幅度更大。在中间需求中,第二产业对第二产业自身的需求是拉动第二产业增长的关键因素；在最终需求中,资本形成需求、出口需求是拉动第二产业增长的关键因素。第三产业的较快增长也得益于中间需求和最终需求都以较大幅度增加。在中间需求中,第二产业对第三产业的需求、第三产业对第三产业自身的需求是拉动第三产业增长的关键因素；在最终需求中,消费需求是拉动第三产业增长的关键因素。本文建议,在制定扩大需求的对策时,应充分重视产业间的关联作用,通过发挥产业间的关联作用带动相关产业的发展；同时应充分重视不同产业的需求结构特征,有针对性地制定扩大需求、促进三次产业协调发展的对策。本文的主要创新点是：(1)定量研究各种需求因素对中国三次产业增长的影响,这些需求因素不仅包括最终需求因素,还包括中间需求因素。(2)证明运用竞争型投入产出模型进行完全后向关联分析暗含严格假设条件,而运用非竞争型投入产出模型进行完全后向关联分析不受该假设条件的限制。(3)运用当年价投入产出表测度各种因素对产业实际增长的影响。本文没有把历年的投入产出表转换为可比价投入产出表,而是在当年价投入产出表的基础上,借助价格指数测度了各种需求因素对产业实际增长的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on input output tables of china, this dissertation compiles china’s non-competitive input output tables of the year 1981,1987,1992,1997,2002 and 2007. The non-competitive input output model is used to analyze the contribution of the demand factors to the growth of the three strata of industry. The dissertation utilizes the allocation coefficient to analyze the demand structure of the three strata of industry. The demand structure includes the intermediate demand structure and the final demand structure. The dissertation also uses the pull coefficient to analyze final demand structure. The final demand structure calculated with allocation coefficients does not consider industrial linkage, but the final demand structure calculated with pull coefficients considers industrial linkage. The dissertation also puts forward demand fluctuation elasticity to calculate the influence of final demand fluctuation on industry. Montgomery decomposition method, which is a newly developed input output decomposition method, is used in this dissertation to analyze the contribution of factors influencing the growth of the three strata of industry. The main conclusions of this dissertation are as follows:(1) From 1981 to 2007, the demand structure of china’s three strata of industry has a lot of change. The intermediate demand rates of primary industry and secondary industry increase dramatically, while the final demand rates of primary industry and secondary industry decrease dramatically. In 2007, the direct pull effect of intermediate demand at the primary industry surpasses the direct pull effect of final demand at the primary industry; the direct pull effect of intermediate demand at the secondary industry surpasses the direct pull effect of final demand at the secondary industry. Compared with the primary industry and the secondary industry, the intermediate demand rate of the tertiary industry changes more slowly, so does the final demand rate of the tertiary industry. From 1981 to 2007, the structure of intermediate demand of the three strata of industry has a lot of change, so does the structure of final demand of the three strata of industry. More specifically, the subdivision of the three strata of industry has different intermediate demand structure and final demand structure. Compared with the demand structure of the United States, Japan, and Germany, the intermediate demand rate of the primary industry of China is in the middle, the final demand rate of the primary industry of China is also in the middle. Compared with the demand structure of the United States, Japan, Germany, the intermediate demand rate of the secondary industry of China is the highest, and the final demand rate of the secondary industry of China is the lowest. So the intermediate demand rate of the secondary industry of China is likely to decrease, while the final demand rate of the secondary industry of China is likely to increase. Compared with the demand structure of the United States, Japan, Germany, the intermediate demand rate of the tertiary industry of China is the highest, and the final demand rate of the tertiary of China is the lowest. So the intermediate demand rate of the tertiary industry of China is likely to fall, while the final demand rate of the tertiary industry is likely to rise.(2) The pull coefficient of consumption demand at the primary industry is much higher than the pull coefficient of capital formation demand at the primary industry; the latter is much higher than the pull coefficient of export demand at the primary industry. From 1981 to 2007, the pull coefficient of consumption demand at the primary industry had been decreasing, while the pull coefficients of capital formation demand and export demand at the primary industry had been increasing. Compared with the pull coefficient of final demand at the primary industry of the United States, Japan and Germany, the pull coefficients of consumption demand, capital formation demand and export demand at the primary industry of China are all in the middle.(3) In 1981, the pull coefficient of consumption demand at the secondary industry of China is much higher than the pull coefficient of capital formation demand at the secondary industry of China; the latter is much higher than the pull coefficient of export demand at the secondary industry. In 2007, the pull coefficient of capital formation demand at the secondary industry of China is much higher than the pull coefficient of export demand at the secondary industry of China; the latter is much higher than the pull coefficient of consumption demand at the secondary industry. Compared with the pull coefficient of final demand at the secondary industry of the United States, Japan and Germany, the pull coefficient of consumption demand at the secondary industry of China is the lowest, the pull coefficient of the capital formation demand at the secondary industry of China is the highest, while the pull coefficient of the export demand at the secondary industry of China is in the middle.(4) In 1981, the pull coefficient of consumption demand at the tertiary industry of China is much higher than the pull coefficient of capital formation demand at the tertiary industry of China; the latter is much higher than the pull coefficient of export demand at the tertiary industry of China. From 1981 to 2007, the pull coefficient of consumption demand at the tertiary industry had been decreasing, while the pull coefficient of export demand at the tertiary industry had been increasing. In 2007, the pull coefficient of consumption demand at the tertiary industry of China is also much higher than the pull coefficient of export demand at the tertiary industry of China; the latter is also much higher than the pull coefficient of capital formation demand at the tertiary industry of China. Compared with the pull coefficient of final demand at the tertiary industry of the United States, Japan and Germany, the pull coefficient of consumption demand at the tertiary industry of China is the lowest, while the pull coefficient of capital formation demand and export demand at the tertiary industry is the highest. Generally speaking, the pull coefficient of consumption demand at the tertiary industry of China is likely to rise, while the pull coefficient of capital formation demand and export demand at the tertiary industry is likely to fall.(5) Demand, price as well as the rate of value added to total input of industry are factors influencing the growth of industry. Of the three kinds of factors, demand is the most important factor that dominates industrial growth. Growth of the primary industry in China mainly benefited from the enlargement of intermediate demand, especially the intermediate demand from the secondary industry. Compared with the intermediate demand, the contribution from the final demand at the growth of the primary industry of China is relatively small. Fast growth of the secondary industry benefited both from the substantial enlargement of intermediate demand and the final demand, especially from the intermediate demand expansion from the secondary industry and from the capital formation demand enlargement and the export demand enlargement. Fast growth of the tertiary industry also benefited both from the intermediate demand enlargement and the final demand enlargement, especially from the intermediate demand enlargement from the secondary industry and the tertiary industry, and from the consumption demand enlargement. Generally speaking, the intermediate demands from the secondary industry are vital forces that pull the three strata of industry, the capital formation demand and export demand are vital forces that pull the secondary industry, and the consumption demand is the vital force that pulls the tertiary industry.The dissertation puts forward some suggestions about demand enlargement to give impetus to the balanced growth of the three strata of industry. The dissertation emphasizes that industrial linkage as well as the demand structure of different industries should be paid much attention when making policies of demand enlargement.The main innovation points in this dissertation are as follows:(1) This dissertation quantitatively analyzes the influence of different demand factors to the growth of the three strata of industry. Demand factors include the intermediate demand from the three strata of industry as well as the final demand, which contains the consumption demand, the capital formation demand and the export demand.(2) This dissertation proves that implicit hypothesis exists when choosing the competitive input output table to make total backward industrial linkage analysis. It does not have to satisfy the conditions when choosing the non-competitive input output table to make total backward industrial linkage analysis.(3) This dissertation does not use the constant prices input output tables to analyze the factors influencing actual growth of the three strata of industry, as the compiling of constant prices input output table is rather a hard work. With the price indexes of the three strata of industry, this dissertation chooses the current prices input output tables to analyze the factors influencing actual growth of the three strata of industry.更多还原