【作者】 姚毅；

【导师】 王朝明；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 政治经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,中国在保持了经济高速增长的同时,其扶贫领域也取得了举世公认的成就。当前的中国已整体达到小康水平,并进入全面建设小康社会的阶段。尽管如此,中国的贫困问题并未得到根本的解决,而是以更复杂的形式出现：一方面,随着经济增长而出现的收入不平等的恶化,中国的贫困表现为绝对贫困与相对贫困并存,且相对贫困问题日益凸显的格局；另一方面,随着社会经济中机会与风险的同步增加,中国底层社会的收入脆弱性问题逐渐显现,贫困状况也随着时间不断变动,并表现出明显的动态演化特征；另外,随着市场化改革的不断深入,贫困问题不再是一种单纯经济现象,而是经济、社会、政治、文化等各方面因素共同作用的结果。因此,研究中国城乡的相对贫困问题,考察中国城乡贫困动态演化的状况及差异,并结合多学科的研究成果对中国城乡贫困发生及其动态演化的机制进行解读,这些问题的研究不仅有助于深化对新时期中国城乡贫困问题的理解,而且能为相对贫困的治理提供一定的理论解释和政策现实依据。本文利用多维贫困指标体系以及转移矩阵的数理分析方法对中国城乡整体贫困状况及其动态演化特征进行考察；同时,本文结合经济学和社会学的最新研究成果,并借助CGSS(中国综合社会调查)数据和CHNS(中国营养和健康调查)数据,采用二元Logit计量模型,从经济增长、人力资本和社会资本的视角对中国城乡贫困发生及其动态演化机制进行理论和实证研究；另外,本文的最后结合前文研究结论以及国际反贫困实践的经验和启示,提出了在全面建设小康社会时期中国政府反贫困工作所面临的挑战和对策。本文共分6章,主要内容和观点如下：第0章导论。在该部分,本文主要介绍研究的背景和意义,明确研究的主题和范围,提出研究的内容和逻辑,总结研究的方法,并指出研究可能达到的创新和存在的不足。第1章文献回顾及评介。在该部分,本文遵循国内外贫困研究的发展路径,着重从贫困内涵和贫困发生机制两个方面对已有的研究进行了总结,进而提出贫困研究存在的不足,从而为本文的研究指明了方向。第2章中国城乡贫困动态演化的现状及城乡对比。在该部分,本文着重从静态和动态两个方面考察了中国城乡贫困的整体水平、变动趋势以及其动态演化特征,并从时间和空间上对中国城乡贫困现状进行了比较分析。第3章从经济增长、人力资本和社会资本视角对中国城乡贫困发生及其动态演化的机制进行了理论分析。第3章不仅考察了上述三类因素对贫困的作用机制,而且将其纳入一个统一的框架下进而考察了贫困发生的联合作用机制。本文提出经济增长的“涓流机制”和“扩散机制”并不能自动的发挥作用；经济增长的减贫效果的实现受到微观家庭层面的人力资本存量的影响；但是从人力资本投资到人力资本的最终价值实现需要经历人力资本投资——人力资本的匹配——人力资本的最终价值实现三个阶段,在此过程中,社会资本作为一种制度化的社会关系网络对上述三个阶段均产生重要影响,从最终影响到家庭层面的整体贫困状况及其动态演化特征。第4章是对第3章理论分析的实证验证。在这部分本文借助CGSS(中国综合社会调查)数据和CHNS(中国营养和健康调查)数据,采用二元Logit计量模型,主要从经济增长、人力资本和社会资本视角对中国城乡贫困发生及其动态演化的影响进行了实证验证。分析结果表明：一是经济增长并不会自动的降低贫困发生率,但是会对家庭层面的贫困动态演化产生影响,但这种影响在中国城乡之间存在较大的差异。具体来说,对于农村家庭,经济增长的作用主要体现在降低非贫困家庭的返贫概率,而对贫困家庭脱贫概率的提高作用不明显；对于城市家庭,经济增长改善了其贫困家庭的脱贫概率,而对其非贫困家庭的返贫概率的降低作用不明显。二是人力资本中的教育、健康、培训等因素对城乡贫困发生率均产生显著的降低作用；同时,教育因素还对中国城乡贫困动态演化产生重要的影响,但是不同层面的教育水平的作用存在一定的不同,且这种影响在城乡之间存在较大的差异。具体来说,对于农村家庭,教育因素都会影响其贫困动态演化状况。其中,高中教育和大学教育降低了农村非贫困家庭的返贫概率,但对农村贫困家庭的脱贫概率影响不显著；而初中教育不仅能降低农村非贫困家庭的返贫概率,而且还有助于提高农村贫困家庭的脱贫概率。对于城市家庭,教育因素主要影响城市非贫困家庭的返贫概率,而对城市贫困家庭的脱贫概率作用不明显。其中,初中教育和大学教育能显著地降低城市非贫困家庭的返贫概率,但并不能有效地改善城市贫困家庭的脱贫概率；同时,高中教育对城市家庭层面的脱贫返贫概率均无显著的影响。三是,社会资本对城市能有效地降低城市贫困发生率。从中国城市致贫因素的统计分析中,我们可以看出城市家庭层面的社会关系网络规模和网络水平是影响其家庭层面社会资本的重要因素,同时,对于中国城市家庭而言,贫困家庭和非贫困家庭之间的社会资本存量存在较大的差异；从中国城市致贫因素的实证分析中,我们还发现家庭层面的社会资本存量能有效地降低城市贫困发生率。第5章国际反贫困政策的经验及启示。在该部分,本文对一些典型的西方发达国家和发展中国家的反贫困政策进行了阐述,并总结出国外反贫困政策的制定和实施所带来的启示。第6章转型期中国城乡反贫困的政策建议。在该部分,本文基于前文的分析结论并结合国际反贫困政策的经验和启示,提出了新时期中国城乡反贫困的政策建议。本文从政府反贫困总体战略选择和具体策略设定两个层次,分析了在全面建设小康社会时期中国政府反贫困工作所面临的挑战和对策。本文研究可能在以下三个方面有一定的创新：一是超越了贫困发生机制研究中的经济增长、人力资本以及社会资本单一分析视角,提出贫困发生和动态演化的三因素联合作用机制,并对这种联合作用机制进行了实证验证。二是,在本文的贫困现状和实证验证过程中,结合贫困指标束和转移矩阵的数理分析方法从静态和动态两个角度进行了分析,并从这两个角度对中国城乡贫困现状和影响因素进行了比较分析。弥补了现有研究侧重贫困静态分析而对贫困动态分析不足的现状。三是,借助大型微观面板数据构造Pool样本数据对中国城乡贫困现状和影响因素进行了分析,并较为详细的体现了贫困的异质性。这在某种意义上解决了现有研究将贫困群体作为同质性群体,而较少反映其异质性特征的问题。同时,由于数据的缺乏,现有研究主要采用宏观数据进行分析,因而可能影响分析结果的准确度。所以借助家庭大型微观面板数据的统计和计量分析能有效地提高分析结果的准确性。同样,由于本人理论水平的限制和数据可得性的影响,本文的研究存在一些不足：一是,本文对贫困问题的研究主要侧重于经济贫困的考察,而对非经济贫困的分析不足。二是,由于数据可得性的影响,本文在实证验证中对于社会资本因素的分析未能涉及其对城乡贫困动态以及农村贫困发生的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the Great Reform, China has remained high economic growth; furthermore, it has got a great progress in poverty alleviation. At present, China has wholly got into the society of xiaokang, and the economy of China is changing for the better. But, the poverty in China isn’t fully resolved, besides, it happens in a more complicated way. On the one hand, the relative poverty is more obvious as the worseness of income unfairness. On the other hand, since the opportunities and risks are growing simultaneously, the income of the people in the lower class is more frangible; moreover, the poverty in China is changing as time goes, and behaves in a dynamic way. What’s more, as the reform of market-orientation goes, poverty is not a problem of pure economics; it is more like a comprehensive result of economy society politics and culture. Thus, analyzing the relative poverty in China, studying the difference of poverty dynamics between the urban and rural areas, and researching the mechanism of poverty dynamics based on a multi-disciplinary angle, which are solved that is good for a better understanding of poverty in China, and provides the realistic basement for the poverty alleviation.This paper studies the whole poverty condition and its dynamics based on the poverty indexes and the transition matrix; besides, based on the newest analysis of economics and sociology, we propose a theoretical and econometrical research on the poverty mechanisms from the angles of economic growth human capital and social capital by using the Logit model on the data from CGSS and CHNS; furthermore, built on the research and experience of poverty alleviation in foreign countries, we propose some suggestion for the poverty alleviation in the last part of this paper.This paper is divided into six parts, it goes as follows:Chapter 0 is the introduction. In this part, we introduce the research background and meaning, define the subject and scape, propose the content and logic, summarize the methods, and put forward the creative points and shortage. Chapter 1 focuses on the theory evolution. According to the poverty analysis in the foreign countries, we summarize the content and mechanisms of poverty, and put forward the shortage of the existing research.Chapter 2 describes the poverty condition in China. In this part, we mainly analyze the poverty condition from the angle of statistics and dynamics, and compare poverty of Urban and Rural.Chapter 3 constructs the theoretic frame. In this part, we firstly propose the functional mechanisms of economic growth human capital and social capital. Secondly, we bring those three factors together and construct the theoretical frame for this paper. Since the economic growth is influenced by the human capital of the family, it can’t affect poverty automatically; as to human capital, its effects are decided by three stages:investment—matching—implement. And social capital which is an institutional social network would be functional in the three stages mentioned above.Chapter 4 is the econometric proof of the mechanisms proposed in Chapter 3. In this part, we check up the mechanisms by using the Logit model on the data both from CGSS and CHNS. It concludes:First, Economic Growth doesn’t decrease the poverty simultaneously, but it would influence the poverty dynamics. Specifically speaking, it mainly decreases the poverty entrance of the rural family and increases the poverty exit of the urban family. Second, the human capital such as education training and health could help alleviate the poverty in both statistics and dynamics, but the effects are different between the Urban and Rural family. For the Rural family, education is important for the poverty dynamics, the education in high school and college decreases the poverty entrance, besides the education in junior high school is influential for both poverty entrance and exit. For the Urban family, education mainly influences the poverty entrance but is not so important for poverty exit. The education in junior high school and college decreases the poverty entrance, but completing high school doesn’t affect the poverty dynamics. Thirdly, social capital would decrease the poverty emergence. In the statistical analysis, we find that the scale and level of social network are important factors of the social capital in the urban family, meanwhile, there is a big difference in social capital between the poor and the non-poor; in the econometric analysis, we can figure out that social capital in the urban family could decrease the poverty emergence effectively.Chapter 5 summarizes the experience of anti-poverty policy. In this part, we choose some developed and developing countries to make a comparison between them, and summarize the experience of anti-poverty policy.The research in this paper would be creative in facets as follows:First, we construct a mechanism of multi-factors and test it in the econometric part. Second, in the analysis of poverty condition and mechanism, we pursue the research in an angle of both statistics and dynamics. Third, we use data of micro economy, which reflects the difference of the poor and improves the reliability of the conclusion.Meanwhile, restricted by the theoretic level of mine and the data, there are some shortages in this paper:First, we mainly study the poverty of economy, it is not sufficient in the analysis about poverty of non-economy. Second, in the econometric research of social capital, we don’t include it in the study of poverty dynamics in China and statistics for the rural family.更多还原